UFC 109 picks

[brashleyholland]

Who has everyone got? I'm going with...

 

Couture - TKO

Marquardt - TKO

Maia - submission

Serra - TKO

Swick - decision

 

I'm going against the grain in that I'm quite looking forward to this card now. I'm sure the main event will be a snore, but I don't care, I've waited over a decade to see it. Marquardt/Sonnen has title implications and I'm curious as to whether or not Nate can pull off another super-combo :-p

 

Serra/Trigg should be a decent brawl and Maia is always fun to watch. Not particularly excited about Swick/Thiago as I was really looking forward to seeing Paulo fight Kos again. Most of Swicks fights either end early and spactacularly or end up being laboured decisions...Thiago is too crafty to leave the gaps that Swick loves to exploit early in the fight, so I'm thinking this one will be a bit of a dirge.

 

All in all though, looking forward to this alot more than I thought I would.

[jesterx7769]

Overall its actually solid, its just lacking star power (hence Randy) but its a bunch of "meh" match ups but as I said there are also no crappy ones. I wont be ordering it but I'm not too dissapointed in this card as they have some really good ones coming up. Interesting how they hype the fight by announcing Marquardt/Sonnen is #1 contenders now

[brashleyholland]

Interesting how they hype the fight by announcing Marquardt/Sonnen is #1 contenders now

 

Yeah, I mean, Nate's been in the picture for a while, but I'm supprised that they've come out and said that it's a straight up number one contender's fight. Ed Soares has made a stink about 'worthy' opponants in the past, so I can't see them being all that interested in having to fight Sonnen. My guess is that if Chael pulls off the upset, Anderson will fight at 205 again should he get past Belfort. Especially if Shogun beats Machida.

[ACCBiggz]

Couture - Decision (Fight is a lot closer than betting odds which makes me want to lay down some)

Marquardt - TKO

Miller - Decision (but most likely Maia, R1 Sub. Just throwing an upset special out there)

Serra - Submission

Thiago - Submission

[TakerNGN74]

Randy Couture - via decision, could go either way with these two though.

Nate Marquardt - via decision

Mike Swick - TKO

Dan Miller - decision

Matt Serra - Frank Trigg is a boner he will get knocked out hopefully

[chris caulfield]

Couture via TKO in round three because I think Coleman will gas.

Nate Marquardt via TKO in whatever round because he has been fighting light someone on Tekken with his crazy combos.

Maia via submission as that's just what he does.

Serra via decision as I just see his as a better fighter at this time.

Paulo Thiago via decision as I don't know why I just have a feeling.

[ColtCabana]

Randy Couture - I think this will be a great competitive fight.

Nate Marquardt - Decision

Damian Maia - Sub

Matt Serra - Decision

Paulo Thiago - Just because he is one of those badass Brazilian B.O.P.E Police guys

[TheKenwyne]

Couture vs. Coleman - 3rd round TKO over a tired Coleman

Marquardt vs. Sonnen - Desicion over a cautious, outmatched Sonnen.

Maia vs. Miller - Leg/arm/neck broken for Miller, assuming Maia dosen't try to play stand up.

Serra vs. Trigg - Trigg uses superior wrestling to win 'can fight of the night' via desicion.

Swick vs. Thiago - First round ground and pound, Swick just dosen't inspire me.

[RingofHonorGuard]

Mark Coleman by split decision - I see Coleman winning the first, the second being close, and Couture winning the third after Coleman is dry heaving. Coleman has great wrestling, and he's old man strong. Couture has great wrestling, and he's old man strong. Difference is I think Coleman wants it more this late in his career. Coleman takes a split decision, maybe even a questionable one that will have "Natural" fan boys crying for months.

 

Sonnen via boring unanimous decision - I see Sonnen vs. Marquardt going a lot like Thales Leites vs. Marquardt, minus all the stupid infractions. Sonnen is durable, has great wrestling, good sub defense, and he's not terrible on his feet. He's been in there with guys of Nate's stature before, and done well. I think Nate comes into this fight a bit overconfident, and gets beat.

 

Maia via Sub/Rd 2 - Dan Miller is a good prospect but he's not on Maia's level yet, especially on the ground. Maia should win this relatively easy, probably by a choke. I'm thinking an arm triangle in the middle of the second.

 

Trigg via decision - Okay, Matt Serra's defensive jiu jitsu is ultra boring. You're going to see a lot of it in this fight because Trigg is too good of a wrestler. Barring a Hail Mary Haymaker, I see Trigg winning by holding Serra down and doing just enough to grind out the decision.

 

Swick via KO - Unfortunately Paulo Thiago's number is up. Swick, KO, early in the first.

[Daffanka]

Mark Coleman by split decision - I see Coleman winning the first, the second being close, and Couture winning the third after Coleman is dry heaving. Coleman has great wrestling, and he's old man strong. Couture has great wrestling, and he's old man strong. Difference is I think Coleman wants it more this late in his career. Coleman takes a split decision, maybe even a questionable one that will have "Natural" fan boys crying for months.

 

Sonnen via boring unanimous decision - I see Sonnen vs. Marquardt going a lot like Thales Leites vs. Marquardt, minus all the stupid infractions. Sonnen is durable, has great wrestling, good sub defense, and he's not terrible on his feet. He's been in there with guys of Nate's stature before, and done well. I think Nate comes into this fight a bit overconfident, and gets beat.

 

Maia via Sub/Rd 2 - Dan Miller is a good prospect but he's not on Maia's level yet, especially on the ground. Maia should win this relatively easy, probably by a choke. I'm thinking an arm triangle in the middle of the second.

 

Trigg via decision - Okay, Matt Serra's defensive jiu jitsu is ultra boring. You're going to see a lot of it in this fight because Trigg is too good of a wrestler. Barring a Hail Mary Haymaker, I see Trigg winning by holding Serra down and doing just enough to grind out the decision.

 

Swick via KO - Unfortunately Paulo Thiago's number is up. Swick, KO, early in the first.

 

This is astoundingly like my picks, except Serra by TKO (Trigg's going to try and stand with him) and Thiago by submission.

[brashleyholland]

SPOILERS IN WHITE!

 

Just got off the phone with someone at the arena...Gracie apparently looked HORRIBLE, gassed out in minutes, couldn't get the fight back to the ground at the end of the first and got stuffed and pounded out in the second. Wow, big letdown there.

[brashleyholland]

Thiago - Submission

 

Good call...did not see that one comming.

[Mr T Jobs To Me]

I'm going with the Hammer tonight, I feel like Randy showed he can't take hard shots anymore against Vera and that'll be the difference here.

[brashleyholland]

I'm going with the Hammer tonight, I feel like Randy showed he can't take hard shots anymore against Vera and that'll be the difference here.

 

Shame Coleman couldn't deliver any. Good win for Randy, but honestly I didn't see anything that makes me think that he could last more than a round or two with a Machida or a Shogun at this point.

 

If I didn't know that he's going to fight again as soon as possible, I'd say that now would be a good time for him to quit.

 

As for Coleman, some time off and the loser of Ortiz/Liddell 3.

[Daffanka]

This is astoundingly like my picks, except Serra by TKO (Trigg's going to try and stand with him) and Thiago by submission.

 

Hell yeah check out my picks except Coleman over Randy

[ACCBiggz]

Good call...did not see that one comming.

 

Swick hasn't shown me much of anything recently and Thiago is in my Top 5 at 170. He legitamized himself in the loss with Fitch with how he performed. It'll be interesting to see what his next fight is... quite possibly a handicap match considering how Joe Silva books him.

[brashleyholland]

Swick hasn't shown me much of anything recently and Thiago is in my Top 5 at 170. He legitamized himself in the loss with Fitch with how he performed. It'll be interesting to see what his next fight is... quite possibly a handicap match considering how Joe Silva books him.

 

Kampman maybe? Winner/loser fights the winner/loser of Koscheck/Daley? Potential for a couple of rematches there, but I think alot of people want to see Kos/Thiago 2.

[ACCBiggz]

I wouldn't mind Koscheck/Thiago 2 for a shot at the winner of GSP vs. Fitch/Alves. Because I can not see Daley and/or Hardy winning, except unless Koscheck stands.

[RingofHonorGuard]

I actually think after Paulo's win last night that Koscheck needs to win another fight to get back to Paulo. Paulo should fight the winner of Thiago Alves/Jon Fitch for a title shot. Koscheck's loss by complete wrestling dominance to GSP still fresh in the mind.

 

I was completely wrong about him. I mean I knew he had some talent after the Fitch fight, and obviously the Koscheck knock out(but I like many others felt like it was a fluke and/or bad stoppage). But after seeing him take out a prospect like Jacob Volkman and then not only surviving the standup with Swick but winning a lot of exchanges and then sinking the sub.. nice. I'm ready to see his next fight.

 

I'm not really disappointed in Coleman, and nobody really should be. His knees seem pretty much shot, which was apparent in his horrible movement. A better striker than Couture would have ended it in the first minute and a half. Couture looked impressive, and the win certainly made me more interested in seeing him fight Shogun or Machida.

 

On a side note, Ronnys Torres got robbed. I don't care how cool or improved Guillard looked... Technique and control should always overrule flashiness. I hope they give Torres another fight, because he looked damn impressive.

 

And what about Phil Davis? I seen a couple of his fights and knew he was a fairly explosive wrestler, but wow... I know Brian Stann isn't much of a gauge to test someone's ground game, but Phil Davis looked like an absolute monster. It was like watching Kevin Randleman fuse with Donkey Kong... and Stann was the barrel.

[jesterx7769]

Guillard didn't impress me, I've been critical of him on the boards before but only because I want him to do so much better. For being a state wrestling champion he got taken down at will last night and is lucky his opponent did no damage to him on the ground or he would have lost. Joe Rogan really was hyping him up now about how he is training at Jackson's now but if I was Greg Jackson I wouldn't be really pleased with his performance especially considering Guillard is a veteran of the octagon now and it was Torres' first UFC fight, btw, not taking anything away from Torres by any means, just saying it wasnt as impressive as the announcers were hyping it

 

I haven't watched the other fights yet so I wont even comment on them

[brashleyholland]

I actually think after Paulo's win last night that Koscheck needs to win another fight to get back to Paulo. Paulo should fight the winner of Thiago Alves/Jon Fitch for a title shot. Koscheck's loss by complete wrestling dominance to GSP still fresh in the mind.

 

Well Kos has Daley next anyway, and Thiago still has a full time job with B.O.P.E. in Brazil. Maybe they'll keep him on the shelf for the winner of Kos/Daley...winner of that fight gets a title shot at the end of 2010?

 

I'm not really disappointed in Coleman, and nobody really should be. His knees seem pretty much shot, which was apparent in his horrible movement. A better striker than Couture would have ended it in the first minute and a half. Couture looked impressive, and the win certainly made me more interested in seeing him fight Shogun or Machida.

 

I'm really not that interested in that fight at all. Couture looked good last night, but it's all reletive. He performed poorly against Vera and it took everything he had to hang in there against Nogueira, who himself is slowing down. He's slow and can't take a shot...those two factors alone make a fight against Machida or Shogun seem like a foregone conclusion.

 

I don't want to see a 46/47 year old man taking another brutal knock out, much in the same way that I don't want to see him smother his way to a 25 minute decision. Give him Wanderlei Silva or Rich Franklin then the winner of Chuck/Tito, but keep him out of the title picture.

 

As for Coleman, there's been a lot of "OMG!!1! Coleman looked horrible! What a joke!!1!" reactions following that fight...but seriously, what did people expect? He's a great wrestler who put on a gutsy showing against a middle of the road Stephan Bonnar...but he's still a broken down one trick pony who the years have not been kind to. I enjoyed the visual of Couture/Coleman for what it represented, but like you said, nobody should be dissapointed with him because they shouldn't have had great expectations in the first place.

 

On a side note, Ronnys Torres got robbed. I don't care how cool or improved Guillard looked... Technique and control should always overrule flashiness. I hope they give Torres another fight, because he looked damn impressive.

 

Agreed...Tuchscherer was gifted his win as well.

 

And what about Phil Davis? I seen a couple of his fights and knew he was a fairly explosive wrestler, but wow... I know Brian Stann isn't much of a gauge to test someone's ground game, but Phil Davis looked like an absolute monster. It was like watching Kevin Randleman fuse with Donkey Kong... and Stann was the barrel.

 

Davis is another great example of an exceptional athlete getting into MMA. His striking was way off and he had numerous oppertunities for submissions, but these will come in time. Despite that, his incredible athleticism and wrestling let him have his way with a more experienced opponant. Hopefully he'll be given some time to grow and develop before he's thrown to the wolves.

[brashleyholland]

Guillard didn't impress me, I've been critical of him on the boards before but only because I want him to do so much better. For being a state wrestling champion he got taken down at will last night and is lucky his opponent did no damage to him on the ground or he would have lost. Joe Rogan really was hyping him up now about how he is training at Jackson's

 

I can't put my finger on it but there is something that has always rubbed me the wrong way about Guillard. I just can't seem to get behind him at all. For someone with so much potential, he just can't seem to add that final piece to his game...he taps way to easily, leaves his neck out all the time.

 

I think Torres did enough to win that fight, but he really should have sealed the deal with a choke.

[ACCBiggz]

I actually think after Paulo's win last night that Koscheck needs to win another fight to get back to Paulo. Paulo should fight the winner of Thiago Alves/Jon Fitch for a title shot. Koscheck's loss by complete wrestling dominance to GSP still fresh in the mind.

As mentioned before Koscheck is fighting Paul Daley next anyway. And fresh in your mind is Koscheck's 2007 loss to GSP? As opposed to both Fitch and Alves' which were after Koscheck and in title fights while Josh's was a 3 rounder? Ok then.

 

I suspect if Fitch wins he'll get a title shot regardless, but if Alves wins Koscheck will get the shot if he gets past Daley merely because that was just at UFC 100. But that's just my general thought on what their plan may be.

 

Paulo Thiago is just not on Joe Silva's good side: Koshceck (W - KO R1), Fitch (L - DEC), Volkmann (W - DEC; and let's not forget it was originally Alves he was supposed to fight), and Swick (W - SUB R2).

 

So Paulo Thiago's next fight will be against Cain Velasquez...

 

On a side note, Ronnys Torres got robbed.

No he didn't. I had it 29-28 for Torres but it was a close fight overall and in the third Guillard landed plenty of clean crisp jabs early on, Torres got the couple takedowns (which stole it for me) but did absolutely nothing with them, and then Melvin closed it out with a nice short flurry on the ground. I had it for Torres but not upset that Melvin got the nod as it was close.

 

Ronnys was coming off a string of injuries that kept him from debuting and showed his promise, and Melvin seems to be maturing finally and I think the move to Jackson's is a positive one. He's only 26, soon to be 27, and seems to be making some strides at GJ's. He has the athleticism and raw talent, but he'll need to put it together and this was a good step in that direction. He's looked solid in his past couple bouts even before making the move. I think the "punk kid" side of him has really been diminished in the last 1-2 years. Glad to see him maturing.

[RingofHonorGuard]

You can't really compare Thiago Alves or Fitch to Koscheck. Fitch and Alves both went on monster win streaks. Alves fought(and beat) some of the best welterweights in the division on his way to the title shot, and he's earned his position as being in the top 3 in the division by my eyes, and most of everyone elses. Fitch's record speaks for itself, as he's pretty much steamrolled everyone except St. Pierre in the UFC.

 

Koscheck has a loss to Fickett, a loss to St. Pierre, a loss to Alves, and a loss to Thiago(who wasn't even close to being ranked before knocking him out)... So that's 12 wins, 3 losses. 6 of those wins are to cans and/or gatekeepers. Dave Menne is right there on the fence. It wasn't that solid of a win because it was a blanket decision, but still a decent win. He beat Sanchez in one of the most boring fights I can remember. His only really impressive wins are over a young Hazelett, Lytle due to how he decisioned him, obviously the Yoshida highlight reel, and his choke out of Anthony Johnson. Beating up an aged Frank Trigg didn't do much for him but set him back on the win path, and the win looks even less impressive now that Serra smashed him.

 

Just my own take on it, but I think Koscheck needs to beat Daley, face Thiago in a rematch, and then maybe he gets a #1 contenders fight. Spotty record is spotty.

[ACCBiggz]

I am merely refuting/asking how is Koscheck's loss to GSP fresh in your mind while Fitch/Alves' are not or even not moreso as they are a lot more recent. I did not debate anything about their rankings in the division, if I did please show me. I just suspect if Koscheck wins and Alves wins then Josh gets the shot because it's way more marketable at this point. Someone who GSP JUST beat on the biggest PPV the UFC has ever done... in dominating fashion as per usual, or a charismatic trash talker who has improved since losing to GSP in 2007? Pretty easy booking in my eyes. Like I said above, it's just what I expect will happen if those are the fight results. So I am not sure why you argued something that no one was arguing.