The Brexit vote

[Nightshadeex]

I'm an American economist who is curious what British and European forum members think about the upcoming vote to see if Britain stays in or leaves the EU. I have my own rhoughts, but want to hear what the public thinks. (If you want to participate, let me know where you're from, what you'd vote for, and why.)

[packerman120]

<blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="Nightshadeex" data-cite="Nightshadeex" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="41963" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>I'm an American economist who is curious what British and European forum members think about the upcoming vote to see if Britain stays in or leaves the EU. I have my own rhoughts, but want to hear what the public thinks. (If you want to participate, let me know where you're from, what you'd vote for, and why.)</div></blockquote><p> </p><p> Funny, since I just finished the newest John Oliver episode where he talks about it <img alt=":p" data-src="//content.invisioncic.com/g322608/emoticons/tongue.png.ceb643b2956793497cef30b0e944be28.png" src="<___base_url___>/applications/core/interface/js/spacer.png" /></p>

[Peter.1986]

<blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="Nightshadeex" data-cite="Nightshadeex" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="41963" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>I'm an American economist who is curious what British and European forum members think about the upcoming vote to see if Britain stays in or leaves the EU. I have my own rhoughts, but want to hear what the public thinks. (If you want to participate, let me know where you're from, what you'd vote for, and why.)</div></blockquote><p> </p><p> I think Britain should vote out. Particularly because the EU relies on us much more than we rely on them, from a uk point of view we can secure our own deal. It may make the economy of countries in the EU a little unsteady for a while but in the short term we need to look after ourselves</p>

[Motor]

I'm a german economist and I think they should leave the EU. They did not participate in the most important affairs like the currency reform, the Schengen agreement or the current refugee problem anyway, so they will face a greater impact from the Brexit than the EU will as there economy will suffer in the next years. It would also hopefully cause a reform of the EU as a whole, which is more than necessary.

[evileddie10]

From the UK, but my parents live in Germany (working for the european patent office), which means I am heavily biased, as they would lose their jobs if the UK leaves. Also, just in general, do not think the UK should leave, the leave campaign have not said one thing that makes any sense to me, and sadly the debate has caused a tense divide. Not only this referendum, but how certain media have been radicalising hatred.

[mrwhippy]

<p>I think it's a no-brainer to Remain. Obviously the EU has a lot of flaws but we have quite a favourable agreement within the EU anyway as it stands and the new wave of nationalism will only serve to benefit us at the negotiation table further if we stay. After Germany we are the second most relied on so they aren't going to cut off their nose to spite their face.</p><p> </p><p>

Leave is a massive risk. The economy is still volatile from 2008.</p>

[IWWROCKS]

I don't think either situation is great, and we should absolutely try and get a better deal from the EU, but I think it's a lot safer to remain. My girlfriend is Polish, so like the poster further up I may be a little biased as I sorta like spending time with her, but I'm confident if I didn't even know her I'd feel the same about remaining.

 

However, I am very fearful it's going to be an out vote.

[mrwhippy]

Latest betting odds (which are one of the best indicators in political situations):

 

Remain 3/10

Leave 3/1

[packerman120]

This should be required viewing for Brexit voters.

[Peter.1986]

One thing the remain campaign want you to forget is that we have many other agreements in place, like NATO etc. Coming out of the EU is not about us losing everything we have in place with Europe, it is about us not hving to be ruled by the EU, we still have an array and an agreement with certain countries, we still have trade agreements, we actually have a closer relationship with America than any country.

 

Germany would not benefit from us leaving, it would cost them more money, as the uk and Germany are the top 2 when it comes to paying into the EU

 

if the U.K Voted out, then it would not suddenly kick out everyone who has come to the uk from different countries, that would be ridiculous to even think that. It is scare mongering from the people who are in highly paid positions.

 

People forget the levying the EU does not mean we will just go and remove all the rules that came in under the EU, and any good law the EU passed, would more than likely have come in anyway if we were not part of the EU.

 

But the biggest reason to vote leave is because as said in a previous post it may lead to a reform of the away, and more than likely will, which will benefit the EU but will also benefit the UK as they will without doubt let us back into the away without question.

[Mootinie]

I'm voting to Remain because nobody from the Leave campaign can convince me (based on actual concrete fact) that the UK will be better off if we leave. It's all hypothetical from both sides, but I simply see less con's to remaining. If we do leave, we'll have more control of our own laws but surely that will just give Cameron more free reign to pass stupid crap like the Pasty tax... or the Sugar tax...

 

And I see no point taking the financial risk leaving. Our economy has been getting better and I don't think it's wise to risk reversing all of that good work. Besides, if we leave and the EU reforms, we won't be in the room when that conversation actually happens. The EU will reform without us in mind and there is no guarantee that we will get a better deal if/when we decide to try and rejoin. Remain it is!

[mrwhippy]

I just think we've got to be risk averse when it comes to protecting our economy, a lot of sectors are still reeling from 2008.

 

Not saying the EU economy is good but despite being quite independent of their economic troubles, we would still get pretty big shockwaves from a Brexit and I don't think it's something we can afford to endure.

 

I'm not being belligerent, I enjoy reading well reasoned Leave arguments too. In fact, my intention was to not vote at all because despite an Economics degree I don't consider myself well enough educated but the chance has been afforded to us and Joe Public has become an expert on the matter so I am voting for what I think is best whilst respecting other opinions.

 

Bottom line - I think it was foolish from Cameron to promise the referendum in his manifesto. Don't we vote in a government to make decisions for us? Not vote in a government to give the decision making back to us. Like them or loath them, corrupt or not, those 650 MPs are on the whole a lot more qualified than us to know what is best. Whatever the result, an atmosphere of hatred and political oneupmanship has been whipped up which is absolute poison.

[FlameSnoopy]

There isn't one country in the planet that would benefit from the Great Britain leaving the European Union. Like very often is the case, this is simply a ploy to get more support from conservative and outright xenophobic politicians (a current Global trend). They are very transparently trying to appeal to the uneducated and nationalistic working class, so that the basic worker would vote rather with emotion than rationality.

 

I don't think there is a state in the EU that wouldn't like more control over Euro laws or, on a broader scale, the whole incessant bureaucracy that is well documented. However, for the Union to appear as what it is supposed to be, an union, all of the individual states have to make sacrifices. That means giving up ways to affect the judicial and economic climate. I don't think there is any point in using all the negotiated benefits already negotiated for the Brits as a for instance, no matter if you're for leaving or not. Just because Britain is 'special' when it comes to the EU, doesn't mean that it can strive without the Union, and far from it.

 

From an economical stand point, GB leaving would be a blow to the world economy. Even more so in the EU, but for Britain alone it would be horrible. Willingly isolating themselves from one of the World's most important economical areas is ludicrous. It already has it's own currency, which is more than we can hope for, and already pays less than it's supposed to the EU. Just to note, the UK pays the 3rd most per country, but only the 8th most per capita in the EU in membership fees. So to argument that the UK pays too much money to the Union is stupid. And even if it does leave, the UK will be required to pay a fee just to be included in the so-called 'internal market'.

 

I don't see any good reason for Britain to leave the EU to be honest. It's not like you can live in a bubble and lock all immigrants from entering inside your borders, or save all the money that's supposedly wasted in the Union and make World peace with it.

 

You hate the EU wide laws? Great, so does everyone else.

 

You hate the so-called terrorists entering Eurasia? Great, so does everyone else.

 

You hate the bureaucracy? Great, so does everyone else.

 

I think the only remaining argument is that the food prices in the GB would be lower, which of course wouldn't happen, since the national economy would take a hit, which in turn would mean an eventual increase in prices.

 

And I see no point taking the financial risk leaving. Our economy has been getting better and I don't think it's wise to risk reversing all of that good work. Besides, if we leave and the EU reforms, we won't be in the room when that conversation actually happens. The EU will reform without us in mind and there is no guarantee that we will get a better deal if/when we decide to try and rejoin. Remain it is!

 

I also fully agree with this statement.

 

Like them or loath them, corrupt or not, those 650 MPs are on the whole a lot more qualified than us to know what is best. Whatever the result, an atmosphere of hatred and political oneupmanship has been whipped up which is absolute poison.

 

I'm not going to comment on anything "democracy" related, but just because one is a politician doesn't mean that one is any more qualified than for example, you. In fact, just by being an economist I think you're more qualified than most politicians. Most of them ironically have no idea how economy or money even works, let alone how something appears to the common person. In Finland, the median wage is a little over 3000€ for 2015, but most workers earn between 2500 and 2600€ a year. In 2014, the Finnish Minister of Social Affairs and Health, at the time, asked "Who even earns less than 2100€ or 2600€ per month?" The answer, as stated above, half of the nation. I think that speaks volumes about the qualifications of politicians.

[IWWROCKS]

There isn't one country in the planet that would benefit from the Great Britain leaving the European Union. Like very often is the case, this is simply a ploy to get more support from conservative and outright xenophobic politicians (a current Global trend). They are very transparently trying to appeal to the uneducated and nationalistic working class, so that the basic worker would vote rather with emotion than rationality.

 

I don't think there is a state in the EU that wouldn't like more control over Euro laws or, on a broader scale, the whole incessant bureaucracy that is well documented. However, for the Union to appear as what it is supposed to be, an union, all of the individual states have to make sacrifices. That means giving up ways to affect the judicial and economic climate. I don't think there is any point in using all the negotiated benefits already negotiated for the Brits as a for instance, no matter if you're for leaving or not. Just because Britain is 'special' when it comes to the EU, doesn't mean that it can strive without the Union, and far from it.

 

From an economical stand point, GB leaving would be a blow to the world economy. Even more so in the EU, but for Britain alone it would be horrible. Willingly isolating themselves from one of the World's most important economical areas is ludicrous. It already has it's own currency, which is more than we can hope for, and already pays less than it's supposed to the EU. Just to note, the UK pays the 3rd most per country, but only the 8th most per capita in the EU in membership fees. So to argument that the UK pays too much money to the Union is stupid. And even if it does leave, the UK will be required to pay a fee just to be included in the so-called 'internal market'.

 

I don't see any good reason for Britain to leave the EU to be honest. It's not like you can live in a bubble and lock all immigrants from entering inside your borders, or save all the money that's supposedly wasted in the Union and make World peace with it.

 

You hate the EU wide laws? Great, so does everyone else.

 

You hate the so-called terrorists entering Eurasia? Great, so does everyone else.

 

You hate the bureaucracy? Great, so does everyone else.

 

I think the only remaining argument is that the food prices in the GB would be lower, which of course wouldn't happen, since the national economy would take a hit, which in turn would mean an eventual increase in prices.

 

 

 

I also fully agree with this statement.

 

 

 

I'm not going to comment on anything "democracy" related, but just because one is a politician doesn't mean that one is any more qualified than for example, you. In fact, just by being an economist I think you're more qualified than most politicians. Most of them ironically have no idea how economy or money even works, let alone how something appears to the common person. In Finland, the median wage is a little over 3000€ for 2015, but most workers earn between 2500 and 2600€ a year. In 2014, the Finnish Minister of Social Affairs and Health, at the time, asked "Who even earns less than 2100€ or 2600€ per month?" The answer, as stated above, half of the nation. I think that speaks volumes about the qualifications of politicians.

 

Take politicians out of the equation a minute though. A leading economist has the same amount of power in this referendum as Dave who dropped out of school when he was 15, has 6 kids and is living on benefits because he's too lazy/uneducated to get a job (exaggerated the character obviously to make the point)...democratically that may be fair, but it's not in the best interest of our country. To vote in people to decide the future of our country it's not so bad, but we are actually voting on something that'll change the entire direction of our country and it's awful that someone completely uneducated with no idea of the implications has as much power in deciding that than the leading brains of our country.

[mrwhippy]

I'm not going to comment on anything "democracy" related, but just because one is a politician doesn't mean that one is any more qualified than for example, you. In fact, just by being an economist I think you're more qualified than most politicians. Most of them ironically have no idea how economy or money even works, let alone how something appears to the common person. In Finland, the median wage is a little over 3000€ for 2015, but most workers earn between 2500 and 2600€ a year. In 2014, the Finnish Minister of Social Affairs and Health, at the time, asked "Who even earns less than 2100€ or 2600€ per month?" The answer, as stated above, half of the nation. I think that speaks volumes about the qualifications of politicians.

 

I know where you're going with this but in the UK we have 650 constituencies and each one of them elects an MP to represent them in parliament for a fixed term. So as it stands in the House of Commons, each constituency (and as a by-product every eligible voter) would have an equal 1 out of 650 vote. Completely by-passing the MPs at constituency level in favour of an "every man" (and not legally binding, may I add) referendum that is susceptible to influencing through all the propaganda we are seeing is not only reckless but a clear "f*ck you" to the legislation we agree to abide by as citizens. People in their 30s only now registering to vote is clear evidence of this.

[FlameSnoopy]

Take politicians out of the equation a minute though. A leading economist has the same amount of power in this referendum as Dave who dropped out of school when he was 15, has 6 kids and is living on benefits because he's too lazy/uneducated to get a job (exaggerated the character obviously to make the point)...democratically that may be fair, but it's not in the best interest of our country. To vote in people to decide the future of our country it's not so bad, but we are actually voting on something that'll change the entire direction of our country and it's awful that someone completely uneducated with no idea of the implications has as much power in deciding that than the leading brains of our country.

 

Indeed. I agree with you 100%. This is the exact reason I'm not for direct democracy. I was simply trying to make a point that just because one has a job, doesn't mean that they are good at their job or even know how to do that job.

[FlameSnoopy]

I know where you're going with this but in the UK we have 650 constituencies and each one of them elects an MP to represent them in parliament for a fixed term. So as it stands in the House of Commons, each constituency (and as a by-product every eligible voter) would have an equal 1 out of 650 vote. Completely by-passing the MPs at constituency level in favour of an "every man" (and not legally binding, may I add) referendum that is susceptible to influencing through all the propaganda we are seeing is not only reckless but a clear "f*ck you" to the legislation we agree to abide by as citizens. People in their 30s only now registering to vote is clear evidence of this.

 

You managed to post while I was typing. I actually completely forgot that you don't directly vote for your MPs. Just to make it clear, I fully agree with you as well.

[Peter.1986]

Take politicians out of the equation a minute though. A leading economist has the same amount of power in this referendum as Dave who dropped out of school when he was 15, has 6 kids and is living on benefits because he's too lazy/uneducated to get a job (exaggerated the character obviously to make the point)...democratically that may be fair, but it's not in the best interest of our country. To vote in people to decide the future of our country it's not so bad, but we are actually voting on something that'll change the entire direction of our country and it's awful that someone completely uneducated with no idea of the implications has as much power in deciding that than the leading brains of our country.

 

But, a leading economist is working purely on the fact that economy is all its about? Where as a lazy uneducated person who might not be able to get a job know what's really going off in the street.

 

If a businessman becomes a millionaire by employing 10 European immigrants and illegally paying them much lower than the minimum wage, making 10 people unemployed who would have taken those jobs at minimum wage, and the businessman has his fingers in all sorts of pies and spends lavishly, that is good for the economy. But that is NOT good for the country.

 

We have many EDUCATED people coming out of universities that are educated in the subject they took, this does not make them intelligent, these are the same people that voted for the lib dems because they promised free university fees and what happened? Anybody at an age of 16-25 and goes onto further education runs a real risk of taking in everything the government wants them to think. They come out with knowledge on particular subjects but lack the life skills and intelligence to weigh things up and think for themselves. How many of these come out of university to no job?

 

We will without a doubt end up staying in Europe, because that is what's good for the upper class and the people who live in London and the surrounding areas, and these are the people that are putting it in people's heads what is best for them. Simple as that really

[mrwhippy]

<blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="Peter.1986" data-cite="Peter.1986" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="41963" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>But, a leading economist is working purely on the fact that economy is all its about? Where as a lazy uneducated person who might not be able to get a job know what's really going off in the street.<p> </p><p> If a businessman becomes a millionaire by employing 10 European immigrants and illegally paying them much lower than the minimum wage, making 10 people unemployed who would have taken those jobs at minimum wage, and the businessman has his fingers in all sorts of pies and spends lavishly, that is good for the economy. But that is NOT good for the country.</p><p> </p><p> We have many EDUCATED people coming out of universities that are educated in the subject they took, this does not make them intelligent, these are the same people that voted for the lib dems because they promised free university fees and what happened? Anybody at an age of 16-25 and goes onto further education runs a real risk of taking in everything the government wants them to think. They come out with knowledge on particular subjects but lack the life skills and intelligence to weigh things up and think for themselves. How many of these come out of university to no job?</p><p> </p><p> We will without a doubt end up staying in Europe, because that is what's good for the upper class and the people who live in London and the surrounding areas, and these are the people that are putting it in people's heads what is best for them. Simple as that really</p></div></blockquote><p> </p><p> That's why MPs are voted in on a manifesto. Essentially proof they will represent what we want (as a majority) in all facets.</p><p> </p><p> I will bias my vote on the economy, I admit that. Many others are basing theirs purely on immigration. The MP has to viewed as the one person in the constituency who will make the most level headed choice. Not a perfect system, far from it in fact, but it is what it is and we should trust it. Otherwise we might as well embrace anarchy come Friday morning.</p>

[Peter.1986]

<blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="mrwhippy" data-cite="mrwhippy" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="41963" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>That's why MPs are voted in on a manifesto. Essentially proof they will represent what we want (as a majority) in all facets.<p> </p><p> I will bias my vote on the economy, I admit that. Many others are basing theirs purely on immigration. The MP has to viewed as the one person in the constituency who will make the most level headed choice. Not a perfect system, far from it in fact, but it is what it is and we should trust it. Otherwise we might as well embrace anarchy come Friday morning.</p></div></blockquote><p> </p><p> Yes and the economy is something we are told is good for us. Don't get me wrong it helps an awful lot, but people need to realise that to have the best standard of living is not all about your situation and your financial situation.</p><p> </p><p> There are rich people in London who get murdered by people in their own are who have nothing, there are average income families who live in areas with similar people who have similar values and have the highest quality of life. </p><p> </p><p> The MPs are elitist and will do what best for them.</p><p> </p><p> Jo cox lived in London and spent most of her time campaigning for Syria and Palestine, and somebody who needed help in her constituency wasn't given the help needed and became a terrorist, that should be the biggest kick up the backside this country needs to sort our own situation out first</p>

[mrwhippy]

<blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="Peter.1986" data-cite="Peter.1986" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="41963" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>Yes and the economy is something we are told is good for us. Don't get me wrong it helps an awful lot, but people need to realise that to have the best standard of living is not all about your situation and your financial situation.<p> </p><p> There are rich people in London who get murdered by people in their own are who have nothing, there are average income families who live in areas with similar people who have similar values and have the highest quality of life. </p></div></blockquote><p> </p><p> This is very true but I'm not sure what this is in counter argument to...</p><p> </p><p> </p><blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="41963" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>The MPs are elitist and will do what best for them.</div></blockquote><p> </p><p> Highly generalised and this mindset is mostly the reason dangerous stereotypes and propaganda crops up.</p><p> </p><p> </p><blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="41963" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>Jo cox lived in London and spent most of her time campaigning for Syria and Palestine, and somebody who needed help in her constituency wasn't given the help needed and became a terrorist, that should be the biggest kick up the backside this country needs to sort our own situation out first</div></blockquote><p> </p><p> You're omitting a lot of information when saying this and going in the direction of the point I mentioned above.</p><p> </p><p> I'm going to bow out of this now before this debate heads in the obvious direction it will end up.</p>

[Peter.1986]

<blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="mrwhippy" data-cite="mrwhippy" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="41963" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>This is very true but I'm not sure what this is in counter argument to...<p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> Highly generalised and this mindset is mostly the reason dangerous stereotypes and propaganda crops up.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> You're omitting a lot of information when saying this and going in the direction of the point I mentioned above.</p><p> </p><p> I'm going to bow out of this now before this debate heads in the obvious direction it will end up.</p></div></blockquote><p> </p><p> My points were in answer to people using economy as an arguement to stay, a better economy makes people richer. But what I'm trying to say is just because it makes a man rich doesn't necessarily make it a better country or a better place to live.</p><p> </p><p> I'll not answer the rest as you seem to think this is going in a certain direction, where as in my mind we are only in a discussion.</p>

[Fleisch]

I've already made up my mind to vote leave. I've spent months researching and there is not a thing anyone can say to change my mind as I've heard both sides (and the scare mongering and out right lies).

[Peter.1986]

<blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="Fleisch" data-cite="Fleisch" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="41963" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>I've already made up my mind to vote leave. I've spent months researching and there is not a thing anyone can say to change my mind as I've heard both sides (and the scare mongering and out right lies).</div></blockquote><p> </p><p> Correct 99% of the information from both sides is false.</p><p> </p><p> you get David Cameron saying he will change laws to suit us if stay in the EU which, all you have to do is look at his previous promises, and the fact that he can't bring a law in, it has to go to vote.</p>

[R0x4ry]

I think the only remaining argument is that the food prices in the GB would be lower, which of course wouldn't happen, since the national economy would take a hit, which in turn would mean an eventual increase in prices.

 

Oh... wow. the economy took a huge hit.