Recruiting: Proximity To Home Should Be *Highly* Valued

[SkyDog]

I've been doing some looking around at college rosters, and examining recruiting trends, and I have an observation which leads to a strong suggestion: [i][u]for the vast majority of recruits, distance from home is a *VERY* important factor, trumping even nuanced Prestige differences[/u][/i]. The short version of what I mean is this: a kid from Georgia is almost always going to pick South Carolina or Alabama over Virginia or Virginia Tech--even though the latter two schools finished in the Top 25, and the former two didn't. Just look at the rosters of the schools in question. I've got a few anecdotal details in [url="http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/showpost.php?p=779005&postcount=19"]this post[/url], as well as a couple of other posts in that thread, but in general, I've discovered that in real life even the elite teams get the huge majority of their players from in-state or nearby states. National Champion Southern Cal's roster shows only 16 of their 90 players coming from outside of California or Arizona. Only 12 of the 100+ players listed on the Texas roster come from outside of Texas--and several of those are from Louisiana and Oklahoma. There's not a single real-life Longhorn from the Northeast, or even the Upper Midwest or Great Lakes. I could go on and on, but the bottom line is this: *far* fewer players go far away from home than most people probably would like to think. Two more specific comments: 1. [b][u]A high percentage of the quality prospects need to come from the Big Five recruiting hotbed states[/u][/b]. [b][u](California, Texas, Florida, Georgia and Ohio)[/u][/b]--Schools in or nearby those states in particular should have enough players to fill 80-90% of their rosters with quality players. There's a reason why most of the top teams these days are from in or near the five states mentioned. Heck, even Utah had over half of the players on their roster from in-state, and the vast majority of their out-of-staters (as in 70-80%) were from California. I don't have the inkling to look up all of thei Utes 30-40 players from Cali, but I'd be willing to bet that the vast majority of their California natives were 2-to-3-star prospects who didn't get offers from strong in-state schools, based on some comments I made in the aformentioned thread, and will repeat below. 2. [b][u]Distance from home needs to be a *much* more important factor than even prestige for the vast majority of recruits.[/u] [/b]In the thread mentioned above, for example, I looked at Maryland's current current recruiting class, heralded as one of their best ever. The fact is that 18 of the 24 players signed are from close enough that mom and dad can drive to the game in the morning, and drive home that night. Of the six players not from nearby, all six are from the aforementioned "hotbed states": 4 from Florida, 1 from Georgia, 1 from California. Here's where it gets interesting, though. [i]None of those six players got a significant offer from a solid in-state school.[/i] Three of the four Florida guys had offers from UCF, but nothing from Miami/Florida/FSU. The other three got no in-state offers whatsoever. I follow recruiting pretty closely, and I can assure you that this pattern is in no way unusual or unique. The inference is clear: the vast majority of kids who go far away from home do so not because they [i][u]want to[/u][/i], but because they [i][u]have to[/u][/i]. Sure, a kid from Florida will pick the much-more-prestigious Maryland over UCF, but it is actually pretty rare in real life that a kid from Georgia would pick Maryland over, say, South Carolina, or that a non-elite prospect from New Jersey would even get an [i][u]offer[/u][/i] from Texas. [u][b]3. Players who go far away from home should virtually always fall into one of two categories:[/b][/u] a. didn't get an offer from a solid nearby school (see the Maryland recruiting class above) b. truly elite player looking for the right playing time situation for himself, or the o-coordinator who is great at developing his particular position, or the system that allows him to flourish I know that playing time is going to be a consideration for all players, but it should be "regionalized" first and foremost. In other words, a 3.5-star QB from Austin who values playing time highly should look to A&M/Oklahoma/LSU/Baylor/SMU if Texas has a 5-star freshman on the roster, not to Syracuse.

[SkyDog]

More on this (copy and paste from the FOFC thread). Here's where the top prospects from Georgia went over the last four seasons. Notice how few left the southeast. [center][b] 2004 AJC Super11 [/b] [/center] [center][b]Player[/b][/center] [center][b]Pos[/b][/center] [center][b]School[/b][/center] [center][b]College[/b][/center] [left] Barr, Travis[/left] [center]LB[/center] [center]Chattahoochee [/center] [center]Central Florida[/center] [left] Blackmon, Tray[/left] [center]LB[/center] [center]LaGrange [/center] [center]Auburn[/center] [left] Clay, Antonio[/left] [center]LB[/center] [center]Twiggs County [/center] [center]Clemson[/center] [left] Dewberry, Darius[/left] [center]OL[/center] [center]Peach County [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Dunham, Matt[/left] [center]OL[/center] [center]Pacelli [/center] [center]Florida State[/center] [left] Horne, Tyler[/left] [center]QB[/center] [center]Newnan [/center] [center]UAB[/center] [left] Jackson, Charles[/left] [center]OL[/center] [center]Tri-County [/center] [left] Mincey, Justin[/left] [center]DL[/center] [center]Charlton County [/center] [center]Florida State[/center] [left] Perry, Brandon[/left] [center]DL[/center] [center]Hawkinsville [/center] [center]Middle Tennessee[/center] [left] Scott, Chris[/left] [center]OL[/center] [center]Lovejoy [/center] [center]Tennessee[/center] [left] Wright, Tony[/left] [center]RB[/center] [center]Peach County [/center] [center]Coffeyville CC[/center] [center][b] 2003 AJC Super11 [/b] [/center] [center][b]Player[/b][/center] [center][b]Pos[/b][/center] [center][b]School[/b][/center] [center][b]College[/b][/center] [left] Brown, Thomas[/left] [center]RB/DB[/center] [center]Tucker [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Bryant, A.J.[/left] [center]QB[/center] [center]Peach County [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Ciulla, Jeremy[/left] [center]OL[/center] [center]Kennesaw Mountain [/center] [center]Michigan[/center] [left] Grant, Michael[/left] [center]DB/WR[/center] [center]Stephenson [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Johnson, Calvin[/left] [center]WR[/center] [center]Sandy Creek [/center] [center]Georgia Tech[/center] [left] Johnson, Charles[/left] [center]DL/RB[/center] [center]Hawkinsville [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Lester, Brad[/left] [center]RB[/center] [center]Parkview [/center] [center]Auburn[/center] [left] McClendon, Eric[/left] [center]DL/E[/center] [center]Vidalia [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Miller, Brandon[/left] [center]LB/RB[/center] [center]Miller County [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Walker, Darius[/left] [center]RB[/center] [center]Buford [/center] [center]Notre Dame[/center] [left] Washington, Lorenzo[/left] [center]DL[/center] [center]Grayson [/center] [center]Alabama[/center] [center][b] 2002 AJC Super11 [/b] [/center] [center][b]Player[/b][/center] [center][b]Pos[/b][/center] [center][b]School[/b][/center] [center][b]College[/b][/center] [left] Bailey, Sean[/left] [center]WR/DB[/center] [center]Milton [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Cook, Richard[/left] [center]DL[/center] [center]Washington-Wilkes [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Evans, Jason[/left] [center]RB/DB[/center] [center]Harrison [/center] [center]Stanford[/center] [left] Lumpkin, Kregg[/left] [center]RB[/center] [center]Stephenson [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] McKinzey, Zeb[/left] [center]OL/DL[/center] [center]Parkview [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Mitchell, Blake[/left] [center]QB[/center] [center]LaGrange [/center] [center]South Carolina[/center] [left] Oliver, Paul[/left] [center]DB/WR[/center] [center]Harrison [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Roberson, Avery[/left] [center]DB[/center] [center]Washington [/center] [center]Georgia Tech[/center] [left] Thompson, Josh[/left] [center]DL[/center] [center]Statesboro [/center] [center]Auburn[/center] [left] Watson, Coleman[/left] [center]TE/DL[/center] [center]North Springs [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Williams, Des[/left] [center]LB[/center] [center]Dacula [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [center][b] 2001 AJC Super11 [/b] [/center] [center][b]Player[/b][/center] [center][b]Pos[/b][/center] [center][b]School[/b][/center] [center][b]College[/b][/center] [left] Braley, Andrew[/left] [center]LB[/center] [center]Valdosta [/center] [center]Air Force[/center] [left] Burnam, Kevis[/left] [center]LB[/center] [center]Macon County [/center] [center]Auburn[/center] [left] Cooper, Michael[/left] [center]RB[/center] [center]Screven County [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Falaise, Merci[/left] [center]OL[/center] [center]Washington-Wilkes [/center] [center]N.C. State[/center] [left] Harris, John[/left] [center]WR[/center] [center]Americus [/center] [center]NW Mississippi CC[/center] [left] Pope, Leonard[/left] [center]TE[/center] [center]Americus [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Reddick, Troy[/left] [center]OL[/center] [center]Westover [/center] [center]Auburn[/center] [left] Stuckey, Chansi[/left] [center]QB[/center] [center]Northside (Warner Robins) [/center] [center]Clemson[/center] [left] Taylor, Tony[/left] [center]LB[/center] [center]Oconee County [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Tereshinski, Joe[/left] [center]QB[/center] [center]Athens Academy [/center] [center]Georgia[/center] [left] Tyler, Justin[/left] [center]QB[/center] [center]Jones County [/center] [center]Mississippi State[/center]

[SkyDog]

More... I just checked and there are [u][b]25[/b][/u] D1 programs within 5 hours (350 miles @ 70mph) of Tucker, 14 within 4 hours (280 miles), and 10 (Tech, UGA, Clemson, Auburn, UT, UAB, Troy, MTSU, USC, Bama) than are less than 200 miles away. While Maryland may sound relatively close-by, compared to a place where your family and friends can drive to and from the game on gameday, it isn't nearly as attractive for most kids. I'm looking at Maryland's 2005 class, and this same principle appears to be true for y'all. Out of 24 players you signed, only 6 are from more than a relatively short drive from Maryland. Four of those six are from Florida. Without looking them up, I'd hazard a guess that few/none of the ones from Florida got offers from Miami/Florida/FSU. The one player you got out of Georgia, [url="http://umterps.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/020205aae.html#Heggs"]Barrod Heggs[/url], is listed as having gotten no other offers. The QB you got from Cali had no in-state offers, either. The vast majority of players will only skip over close-by schools for one (or more) of three reasons: 1. Playing time--Maryland might have an edge there for Dwayn, but a UTC or UAB could easily enter the mix for a 3-star player (which is what I'm guessing Dwayn will be.) 2. Prestige--Maryland's probably not prestigious enough at this point to woo a guy like B.Y. from accepting an offer to a middle-of-the-road SEC school like USC. Maryland could perhaps trump offers from Troy St/MTSU/UAB, but if a kid from the Atlanta area is choosing between Maryland and, say, Clemson/USC/Bama, he's far more likely to stay closer to home. 3. Playing for a certain coach/system--(big-timers only)--You'll see a Matthew Stafford pick UGA or FSU over Texas because of the reputations of Richt and Bowden with QB's. OK. I was curious, so I checked. No surprises here in the four Maryland signees from Florida: Chris Clinton--no in-state offers listed Marvin Peoples--UCF was his only in-state Terrell Skinner--UCF was only in-state Nolan Carroll--UCF was only in-state Yup. Pretty much par for the course as far as what I've observed.

[Danny]

A lot of good info here

[AZJAZ]

Well if you take a look at the top quality programs, USC, Oklahoma, Texas, FSU, Miami etc, many of those teams are in hotbed states so they dont need to go out of state to get recruits. Now if you look at Michigan, Wisconsin, Oregon and especially Notre Dame, they dont get many recruits from their home state, so I dont think you can base your argument on Georgia alone or even USC. SoCal is a hotbed of talent, why would they even want to go anywhere else for a player unless that player is elite. Now with the distance from home argument. What if there is a stud from North Dakota? I dont think he will go to Iowa, Minnesota or Nebraska automatically. I like your info, I just dont think we should put all of our eggs in one basket. SkyDog if you get a chance take a look at the rosters of those teams, Michigan, Wisconsin, Oregon and Notre Dame.

[Mr T Jobs To Me]

Great info Skydog, I agree with every point you made. California and Florida also tend to be where most of the really athletic recruits hail from, whereas Texas and Ohio produce a lot of Offensive/Defensive Line prospects if I'm not mistaken. Also, for some reason a lot of people say Pennsylvania has better recruits than Ohio. That's not true, we kick their ass in the All Star game every year.

[SkyDog]

[QUOTE=Mr T Jobs To Me]Great info Skydog, I agree with every point you made. California and Florida also tend to be where most of the really athletic recruits hail from, whereas Texas and Ohio produce a lot of Offensive/Defensive Line prospects if I'm not mistaken. Also, for some reason a lot of people say Pennsylvania has better recruits than Ohio. That's not true, we kick their ass in the All Star game every year.[/QUOTE]Pennsylvania USED to be ahead of Ohio and Georgia, but it no longer is.

[SkyDog]

I don't know if it will post, but I tried to copy and paste Michigan's current roster. Of 87 players, 62 are from the upper midwest (Michigan/Indiana/Ohio/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin). Another dozen or so are from Missouri, Maryland, Kentucky, Maryland and New York. Still a very high number from neighboring and "sectional" states.

[SkyDog]

I'm stunned. I would have thought Notre Dame would be much more national than this, but I count 37 of their players from OH/IND/PA/MI/IA

[SkyDog]

As far as the other schools mentioned: [u][b]WISCONSIN [/b][/u]From "Hotbed" states mentioned above (not including nearby OH): 7 fairly-nearby (PA/MO): 4 scattered, non-hotbed: 11 (but 7 of those are from the northeast--no true powerhouse colleges up there) Nearby or in-state: (WI/IL/MN/SD/MI/MN/IN/OH) everyone else (circa 70 players) [u][b]OREGON [/b][/u]As I would have guessed, virtually everyone is from California. They only have 13 players not from Cali/Wash/Oreg, and about half of those are from Utah and Nevada

[SkyDog]

So...if three of the four schools held up as "national" schools are really regional at best (and Oregon is pretty much in-state or neighboring-state only), I think my argument holds up pretty darned well.

[Arlie Rahn]

I talked with skydog about this before. This method of tying in mileage really only impact the marginal 2.5-3.0 star kids. In the current state-region method, instead of a 2.5 start kid from SE Alamaba going to a GA school (closer by mileage), he goes to an Alabama school. Then, instead of a 2.5 start kid in SE Georgia going to South Carolina, he stays in state. So, in the end, it kind of averages out. The top players (4 and 5 star kids) will be looking at many other factors outside of "state". Prestige, playing style, potential playing time, head coach, personal pref... All these will have a bigger impact on the better players as they have more out of state options to look at. In the end, a 4-star QB from SW Georgia may end up choosing Auburn over Georgia for other reasons if he is a better fit in their program. It's not like he's going to pass up a starting spot on Auburn to stay in-state in GA and sit behind a sophomore stud QB.

[Ragin Cajun]

I'm a big Michigan guy. You look at their starters and very few are from outside the NE/MW area. You'll get a skill player every once in a while. Here is this years recruiting class. DT 11 James McKinney (Central HS) Louisville, KY DE 33 Eugene Germany (Pomona Senior HS) Pomona, CA RB NR Andre Criswell (Renaissance HS) Detroit, MI CB 56 Chris Richards (Monroe (James) HS) Sepulveda, CA DT 5 Marques Slocum (West Philadelphia Catholic HS) Philadelphia, PA WR 9 Antonio Bass (Jackson HS) Jackson, MI OL 17 David Moosman (Libertyville HS) Libertyville, IL LB 38 Brandon Logan (Lexington Catholic HS) Lexington, KY CB 17 Brandon Harrison (Chaminade Julienne HS) Dayton, OH OL 20 Cory Zirbel (Murray HS) Murray, KY OL NR Mark Ortmann (Klein HS) Klein, TX QB 8 Jason Forcier (St. Augustine HS) San Diego, CA DE 46 Carson Butler (Renaissance HS) Detroit, MI DT 15 Terrance Taylor (Muskegon HS) Muskegon, MI OL 14 Tim McAvoy (Bloomington HS) Bloomington, IL LB 58 Chris McLaurin (St. Mary Preparatory School) Orchard Lake, MI P 4 Zoltan Mesko (Twinsburg HS) Twinsburg, OH RB 53 Mister Simpson (Colerain HS) Cincinnati, OH CB 31 Johnny Sears (Edison HS) Fresno, CA WR 35 Laterryal Savoy (Mamou HS) Mamou, LA WR 7 Mario Manningham (Warren G. Harding HS) Warren, OH OL 16 Justin Schifano (Webster HS) Webster, NY RB 5 Kevin Grady (East Grand Rapids HS) East Grand Rapids, MI 23 recruits; 4 from CA, 1 from TX, 1 from LA. All the rest are pretty regional with NY and KY being the farthest other than the two states from the big 5) and then the skill player from LA.

[st.cronin]

It would be interesting if which states produce the best recruits were an editable function.

[AZJAZ]

Most teams are regional but if you look at the very top players like Arlie said most of them are national. Here are the top players from scout.com from last season and here is where they are headed. QB 1 Mark Sanchez (Mission Viejo HS) Mission Viejo, CA 6-2/215/4.85 - Committed to USC RB 1 Antone Smith (Pahokee HS) Pahokee, FL 5-8/185/4.30 - Committed to Florida State WR 1 Patrick Turner (Goodpasture HS) Madison, TN 6-5/210/4.60 - Committed to USC TE 1 Tony Moeaki (Warrenville South HS) Wheaton, IL 6-4/235/4.70 - Committed to Iowa OL 1 Eugene Monroe (Plainfield HS) Plainfield, NJ 6-7/320/5.20 - Committed to Virginia DT 1 DeMarcus Granger (Justin F Kimball HS) Dallas, TX 6-2.5/315/5.20 - Committed to Oklahoma DE 1 Travis Beckum (Oak Creek HS) Oak Creek, WI 6-4/220/4.50 - Committed to Wisconsin LB 1 Tray Blackmon (LaGrange HS) LaGrange, GA 6-0/192/4.50 - Committed to Auburn S 1 Kenneth Phillips (Carol City) Miami, FL 6-3/195/4.55 - Committed to Miami (Fl) CB 1 Demetrice Morley (Miami Killian HS) Miami, FL 6-0/180/4.55 - Committed to Tennessee QB 2 Ryan Perrilloux (East Saint John HS) Reserve, LA 6-2/207/4.65 - Committed to LSU RB 2 Marlon Lucky (North Hollywood Senior HS) North Hollywood, CA 5-11/210/4.50 - Committed to Nebraska WR 2 Fred Rouse (Lincoln HS) Tallahassee, FL 6-3/187/4.50 - Committed to Florida State TE 2 Martellus Bennett (Taylor HS) Houston, TX 6-6/240/4.75 - Committed to Texas A&M OL 2 Alex Boone (St. Edward HS) Lakewood, OH 6-8/300/5.10 - Committed to Ohio State DT 2 Callahan Bright (Harriton SHS) Bryn Mawr, PA 6-2/315/4.90 - Committed to Florida State DE 2 Averell Spicer (Rancho Cucamonga HS) Rancho Cucamonga, CA 6-2/265/4.65 - Committed to USC LB 2 Rey Maualuga (Eureka Senior HS) Eureka, CA 6-2/235/4.50 - Committed to USC S 2 Reggie Smith (Santa Fe HS) Edmond, OK 6-0/192/4.50 - Committed to Oklahoma CB 2 Justin King (Gateway SHS) Monroeville, PA 6-0/180/4.40 - Committed to Penn State QB 3 Jonathan Crompton (Tuscola HS) Waynesville, NC 6-4/216/4.90 - Committed to Tennessee RB 3 Jonathan Stewart (Timberline HS) Olympia, WA 5-10/218/4.52 - Committed to Oregon WR 3 Derrick Williams (Eleanor Roosevelt HS) Greenbelt, MD 6-0/193/4.40 - Committed to Penn State TE 3 DajLeon Farr (North Shore Sr HS) Galena Park, TX 6-5/240/4.62 - Committed to Miami (Fl) OL 3 Reginald Youngblood (Washington B T HS) Houston, TX 6-5/285/5.30 - Committed to Miami (Fl) DT 3 Kade Weston (Red Bank Regional HS) Little Silver, NJ 6-5/300/5.00 - Committed to Georgia DE 3 Doug Worthington (St. Francis HS) Athol Springs, NY 6-7/257/4.70 - Committed to Ohio State LB 3 Brian Cushing (Bergen Catholic HS) Oradell, NJ 6-3/227/4.50 - Committed to USC S 3 C.J. Byrd (North Augusta HS) North Augusta, SC 6-3/184/4.50 - Committed to Georgia CB 3 Jamario O'Neal (Glenville HS) Cleveland, OH 6-1/205/4.45 - Committed to Ohio State QB 4 Ben Olson (Thousand Oaks HS) Thousand Oaks, CA 6-5/230 - Committed to UCLA RB 4 Toney Baker (Lucy Ragsdale HS) Jamestown, NC 5-10/218/4.45 - Committed to North Carolina State WR 4 DeSean Jackson (Polytechnic HS) Long Beach, CA 5-11/175/4.40 - Committed to California OL 4 Dace Richardson (Warrenville South HS) Wheaton, IL 6-6/300/5.00 - Committed to Iowa DT 4 Jerrell Powe (Wayne County HS) Waynesboro, MS 6-3/322/5.10 - Committed to Mississippi LB 4 Luthur Brown (Lakewood HS) Lakewood, CA 6-2/227/4.70 - Committed to USC CB 4 Avery Atkins (Mainland HS) Daytona Beach, FL 5-11/185/4.45 - Committed to Florida RB 5 Kevin Grady (East Grand Rapids HS) East Grand Rapids, MI 5-10/225/4.48 - Committed to Michigan WR 5 Selwyn Lymon (Paul Harding HS) Fort Wayne, IN 6-5/190/4.38 - Committed to Purdue OL 5 Michael Oher (Briarcrest Christian Schools) Memphis, TN 6-5/330/5.20 - Committed to Mississippi DT 5 Marques Slocum (West Philadelphia Catholic HS) Philadelphia, PA 6-5/335/5.00 - Committed to Michigan LB 5 Darius Dewberry (Peach County HS) Fort Valley, GA 6-4/218/4.65 - Committed to Georgia CB 5 Derek Pegues (South Panola HS) Batesville, MS 5-10/192/4.50 - Committed to Mississippi State RB 6 Rashard Mendenhall (Niles West HS) Skokie, IL 5-11/203/4.40 - Committed to Illinois WR 6 Malcolm Kelly (Longview HS) Longview, TX 6-3.5/190/4.55 - Committed to Oklahoma OL 6 Dan Doering (Barrington HS) Barrington, IL 6-6/290/5.00 - Committed to Iowa DT 6 Melvin Alaeze (Randallstown HS) Randallstown, MD 6-2/276/4.60 - Committed to Maryland RB 7 LaMarcus Coker (Antioch HS) Antioch, TN 5-11/195/4.40 - Committed to Tennessee OL 7 Jared Gaither (Hargrave Military Academy) Chatham, VA 6-8/330 - Committed to Maryland DT 7 Vince Oghobaase (Hastings HS) Alief, TX 6-6/300/5.20 - Committed to Duke RB 8 Jason Gwaltney (North Babylon HS) North Babylon, NY 5-11/235/4.50 - Committed to West Virginia DT 8 Roy Miller (Shoemaker HS) Killeen, TX 6-2/295/4.97 - Committed to Texas QB JC Joe Ayoob (CC of San Francisco) San Francisco, CA 6-3/200 - Committed to California DT JC Ismail Abdunafi (Bakersfield) Bakersfield, CA 6-4/285/4.88 - Committed to Illinois LB JC Desmond Bishop (CC of San Francisco) San Francisco, CA 6-2/245/4.67 - Committed to California S JC Reggie Nelson (Coffeyville) Coffeyville, KS 6-0/175 - Committed to Florida WR JC Lavelle Hawkins (CC of San Francisco) San Francisco, CA 5-11/175 - Committed to California K 1 Patrick McAfee (Plum SHS) Pittsburgh, PA 6-0/200 - Committed to West Virginia P 1 Scott Kozlowksi (Royal Palm Beach HS) Royal Palm Beach, FL 6-0/190 - Committed to West Virginia K 2 Jonathan Phillips (Wellington HS) Wellington, FL 5-11/200 - Committed to Florida P 2 Paul Fitzgerald (Stoneman Douglas HS) Parkland, FL 5-11/205 - Alabama K 3 Jordan Congdon (St. Augustine HS) San Diego, CA 5-10/165/4.80 - Committed to Nebraska P 3 Matthew DiLallo (Wellington HS) Wellington, FL 6-1/200/4.90 - Committed to Colorado TE 4 Tommy Trott (Trinity Presbyterian Sch Inc) Montgomery, AL 6-4/240/4.80 - Committed to Auburn DE 4 Raymond Henderson (Oak Creek HS) Oak Creek, WI 6-5/255/4.65 - Committed to Tennessee S 4 Keenan Clayton (Sulphur Springs HS) Sulphur Springs, TX 6-2/210/4.52 - Committed to Oklahoma K 4 Joe Surgan (St. Thomas Aquinas HS) Fort Lauderdale, FL 6-4/200 - Committed to Duke QB 5 Josh Portis (William Howard Taft HS) Woodland Hills, CA 6-4/205/4.55 - Committed to Florida TE 5 Jonathan Hannah (South View HS) Hope Mills, NC 6-5/255/4.85 - Committed to South Carolina DE 5 J.B. Paxson (Center Grove HS) Greenwood, IN 6-3/265/4.85 - Committed to Purdue S 5 Will Harris (Charter Oak HS) Covina, CA 6-2/194/4.60 - Committed to USC QB 6 Kyle Reed (McClymonds Senior HS) Oakland, CA 6-2/200/4.60 - Committed to California TE 6 Edward Dickson (Bellflower HS) Bellflower, CA 6-5/225/4.60 - Committed to Oregon DE 6 Alfred Jones (St. Augustine HS) New Orleans, LA 6-3/240/4.80 - Committed to LSU LB 6 Eugene Hayes (Madison County HS) Madison, FL 6-1/218/4.60 - Committed to Florida State S 6 Shawn Oatis (Chino Senior HS) Chino, CA 5-11/203/4.60 - Committed to UCLA

[AZJAZ]

Notre Dame's Roster, which as you would have also guessed is more national. 95 Abiamiri, Victor Defensive End 6-4/262 SO Randallstown, MD/The Gilman School 23 Anastasio, Chase Wide Receiver 6-1/207 SO Burke, VA/Robinson 58 Banda, Abdel Linebacker 6-1/208 FR Morristown, NJ/Delbarton 90 Beidatsch, Brian Defensive Line 6-3/294 SR Milwaukee, WI/Marquette 59 Bent, James Offensive Line 6-1/260 JR Mishawaka, IN/Mishawaka 53 Boland, Joseph Linebacker 6-2/242 JR Drexel Hill, PA/Monsignor Bonner 71 Bonelli, James Offensive Line 6-4/290 JR Camarillo, CA/St. Bonaventure 56 Borseti, Nick Linebacker 6-4/230 SO Saugus, MA/St. John's Prep 7 Bragg, Darrin Quarterback 6-1/190 FR San Jose, CA/Bellarmine Prep 52 Brockington, Joe Linebacker 6-1/219 SO Palmyra, PA/Palmyra 94 Brown, Justin Defensive End/Linebacker 6-3/243 FR Clinton, MD/Bishop McNamara 91 Cardillo, Craig Kicker 6-0/174 JR Hauppauge, NY/Hauppauge 89 Carlson, John Tight End 6-6/244 SO Litchfield, MN/Litchfield 31 Carney, Jake Free Safety 6-0/189 JR Lexington, KY/Lexington Catholic 31 Cedeno, A.J. Defensive Back 5-11/189 SO Pittsburg, KS/St. Mary's-Colgan 59 Chervanick, Dan Defensive Tackle 6-1/258 JR Leesport, PA/Holy Name 40 Crum Jr., Maurice Linebacker 6-0/221 FR Riverview, FL/Tamba Bay Tech 60 Cullen, Casey Linebacker 6-1/227 SO Victoria, TX/St. Joseph 88 Fasano, Anthony Tight End 6-4/260 JR Verona, NJ/Verona 15 Ferrine, Leo Defensive Back 6-0/181 FR Springfield, NJ/St. Peter's Prep 54 Fitzgerald, David Offensive Line 6-4/294 JR Godfrey, IL/Marquette Catholic 19 Fitzpatrick, D.J. Kicker/Punter 6-1/204 SR Granger, IN/Marian 87 Freeman, Marcus Tight End 6-2/250 JR St. Paul, MN/Cretin-Derham Hall 75 Frome, Chris Defensive End 6-5/266 JR Saugus, CA/Newhall Hart 45 Gioia, Carl Kicker 5-10/173 SO Valparaiso, IN/Valparaiso 86 Gritzman, Tim Tight End 6-3/250 FR Lockport, IL/Lockport 36 Harris, Brandon Wide Receiver 6-0/197 JR New Orleans, LA/Benjamin Franklin 68 Harris, Ryan Offensive Line 6-5/279 SO St. Paul, MN/Cretin Derham Hall 53 Hickey, Dan Snapper 6-3/224 JR Garden City, NY/Chaminade 33 Hoskins, Justin Running Back 5-10/188 FR Grand Rapids, MI/Creston 39 Hoyte, Brandon Linebacker 5-11/232 SR Parlin, NJ/Sayreville War Memorial 26 Iams, Wade Defensive Back 5-9/188 FR Mishawaka, IN/Penn 70 Incarnato, Chauncey Offensive Line 6-5/275 FR Dover, OH/Dover 8 Jabbie, Junior Cornerback 5-10/188 FR Parlin, NJ/The Hun School 61 Jansen, J.J. Snapper 6-3/241 FR Phoenix, AZ/Brophy Prep 32 Jenkins, Jeff Running Back 6-0/231 JR Ann Arbor, MI/Huron 67 Kadous, John Offensive Line 6-6/272 FR Tucson, AZ/Salpointe Catholic 20 Lambert, Terrail Cornerback 5-11/191 FR Oxnard, CA/St. Bonaventure 66 Landri, Derek Nose Guard 6-3/274 JR Concord, CA/De La Salle 98 Laws, Trevor Defensive Line 6-1/290 SO Burnsville, MN/Apple Valley 97 Leitko, Travis Defensive End 6-6/268 JR The Woodlands, TX/The Woodlands 73 LeVoir, Mark Offensive Tackle 6-7/325 SR Eden Prairie, MN/Eden Prairie 79 Mattes, Brian Offensive Line 6-6/284 JR Larksville, PA/Wyoming Valley West 46 Mays, Corey Linebacker 6-1/242 SR Chicago, IL/Morgan Park 35 McConnell, Ashley Fullback 5-11/252 JR Adairsville, GA/Adairsville 5 McKnight, Rhema Wide Receiver 6-1/211 JR La Palma, CA/Kennedy 37 Mitchell, Matt Cornerback 5-8/194 JR Memphis, TN/Christian Brothers 8 Mooney, Marty Quarterback 6-2/202 JR Cincinnati. OH/St. Xavier 76 Morton, Bob Offensive Guard 6-4/294 JR McKinney, TX/McKinney 18 Ndukwe, Chinedum Safety 6-2/225 SO Powell, OH/Dublin Coffman 93 Nicolas, Brandon Defensive End 6-3/263 FR Santa Ana, CA/Mater Dei 84 O'Hara, Michael Wide Receiver 5-10/180 JR Bellevue, WA/Newport 2 Parish IV, Freddie Safety 6-0/197 SO Redondo Beach, CA/Long Beach Poly 16 Powers-Neal, Rashon Fullback 6-2/240 SR St. Paul, MN/Cretin-Derham Hall 17 Price, Geoffrey Punter 6-3/195 SO Hurst, TX/Colleyville Heritage 10 Quinn, Brady Quarterback 6-4/228 SO Dublin, OH/Coffman 62 Raridon, Scott Offensive Tackle 6-6/315 JR Mason City, IA/Mason City 96 Renkes, Bobby Kicker 6-0/195 SO Dallas, TX/Lake Highlands 16 Revelle, Stan Quarterback 5-11/195 SR Poplar Bluffs, MO/Poplar Bluff 32 Reynolds, Alvin Defensive Back 5-10/186 SO Charlotte, NC/Country Day 30 Richardson, Mike Cornerback 5-11/188 JR Warner Robins, GA/Warner Robins 43 Salvador, Anthony Linebacker 6-2/224 JR Concord, CA/De La Salle 83 Samardzija, Jeff Wide Receiver 6-5/216 SO Valparaiso, IN/Valparaiso 50 Santucci, Dan Offensive Guard 6-4/293 JR Chicago, IL/St. Patrick's 25 Schiccatano, Nate Fullback 6-2/236 JR Coal Township, PA/Southern Columbia 82 Shelton, Matt Wide Receiver 6-0/160 SR Collierville, TN/Collierville 57 Stephenson, Jr., Dwight Defensive End 6-2/250 SO Delray Beach, FL/Pope John Paul II 74 Stevenson, Dan Offensive Guard 6-6/297 SR Barrington, IL/Barrington 21 Stovall, Maurice Wide Receiver 6-5/233 JR Philadelphia, PA/Archbishop Carroll 78 Sullivan, John Center 6-4/294 SO Old Greenwich, CT/Greenwich 99 Talley, Ronald Defensive End 6-4/255 FR Oak Park, MI/Renaissance 47 Thomas, Mitchell Linebacker 6-3/221 SO Opelika, AL/Smiths Station 26 Thomas, Travis Running Back 6-0/208 SO Washington, PA/Washington 80 Vaughn, Chris Wide Receiver 6-4/221 FR New Haven, CT/St. Thomas More 4 Vernaglia, Anthony Safety 6-3/222 FR Anaheim Hills, CA/Orange Luthern 3 Walker, Darius Running Back 5-10/202 FR Lawrenceville, GA/Buford 45 Whitney III, Rich Defensive Back 6-2/213 JR Warminster, PA/Kansas City Rockhurst 14 Wolke, David Quarterback 6-2/195 FR Mount Juliet, TN/Smyrna 22 Wooden, Ambrose Cornerback 5-11/192 SO Baltimore, MD/The Gilman School 81 Woods, Rob Wide Receiver 6-2/207 JR Atlantic, IA/Atlantic 9 Zbikowski, Tom Safety 5-11/202 SO Arlington Heights, IL/Buffalo Grove

[SkyDog]

[QUOTE=AZJAZ]Most teams are regional but if you look at the very top players like Arlie said most of them are national. [/quote] Dude, are you even examining that data, or just copying-and-pasting it, without analysis, and sticking with your incorrect assumptions??? :confused: Let's look at the numbers there, from your own data: In-State: 38 Regional: 23 National: 15 How in the WORLD can you claim that "most" of these guys are national, when exactly 50% of them stayed in-state, and another 30% were guys who, for example, were from Iowa and went to Illinois, or Texas and went to Oklahoma, or NC and went to TN, etc.????? (Many/most of the ones I marked as "regional" went to a college [i]adjacent to their home state.[/i][i]) [/i]That's fully 80% of the guys from your list being regional/in-state. Heck, even if you disagree with my characterization of a guy from Florida going to UT being Regional, you can't argue with the fact that half of 'em stayed in-state. Thanks for posting data supporting my position. :D Oh, Arlie, you should take note that Trey Blackmon of LaGrange, GA (just north of Columbus) picked Auburn over UGA. Interesting.

[SkyDog]

Oh yes, and 12 players from the 2006 Rivals 100 have made verbal commitments. How many of those are to in-state schools, you ask? 12. [url]http://uga.rivals.com/viewrank.asp?ra_key=1100[/url]

[dime]

the trick here is balancing realism with the gameplay aspect: san diego state shouldn't become a powerhouse simply because they're in CA, and wisconsin shouldn't lose an ohio recruit to indiana because of distance. I think a value system of state/regional/other aka national would be the best way to break down recruiting values, rather than using raw mileage data to determine distance and base recruit interest off of that. what would *really* be ideal is for the game to keep track of your school's proficiency for each state/region, as a percentile or grade or whatever. when taking over kansas, you could work on establishing pipelines in texas to boost your texas presence and watch it grow over the years, from a D to a C to a B- etc etc. this is how programs are built.

[SkyDog]

[QUOTE=dime]the trick here is balancing realism with the gameplay aspect: san diego state shouldn't become a powerhouse simply because they're in CA, and wisconsin shouldn't lose an ohio recruit to indiana because of distance.[/quote]Absolutely, that's where Arlie has told me that Prestige will, and should, trump distance. I have very little problem with a recruit from Ohio going to Wisconsin or Michigan or Northern Indiana Institute of Evil or Penn St. My concern would be if out of every 10 recruits of 3.5+ stars from Ohio that are generated, 8 of 'em choose TX/UGA/OK/Southern Cal/Auburn because maybe those schools have slightly-to-moderately-higher prestige than WI/MI/ND/OSU. Based on the numbers I've been seeing, 7 or 8 out of 10 top-tier recruits from Ohio should be choosing WI/MI/ND/OSU, two or three should go "national," and every few years, one of 'em should go to an Indiana or Ohio U. [quote]I think a value system of state/regional/other aka national would be the best way to break down recruiting values, rather than using raw mileage data to determine distance and base recruit interest off of that.[/quote]My understand is that what you're saying is the current plan. My two problems with that system are: 1. [b][u]"Fringe" cities within fairly-large states.[/u][/b] For example, Columbus and LaGrange, GA are both on the western border of the state of Georgia, in the central portion of the state. When all other factors are roughly equal, kids from Columbus and LaGrange usually choose Auburn over UGA in real life, because Auburn is 30-45 minutes away, while Athens is 3+ hours away. (In the Class of '05, Auburn has two kids from these two towns, and UGA has zero.) In BBCF, they'll value Georgia over Auburn because Auburn is in a different state. What makes even less sense in this scenario is that a kid from Columbus or LaGrange will "see" Florida, FSU, Tennessee and even Miami as being the same "distance" away as Auburn. That's just crazy. Miami is nearly 600 miles away, and Auburn is less than 40, but it sounds like the game is going to see them as being equally attractive, distance-wise, as it stands now. (This won't a be a rare case, either, as I'm pretty sure Arlie told me that LaGrange High--as it should be--will be one of five "elite" high schools in Georgia.) I'd imagine this sort of situation exists in several places around the country. [b][u] 2. "Border" states from regions.[/u][/b] I don't remember exactly what they all are called, but if I recall, Kentucky is in the South region, West Virginia is in the East or Northeast Region, and Ohio is in the Midwest Region. In real life, WV and Kentucky both get a decent number of kids from the southern part of Ohio. In this system, though, a kid from Southern Ohio will end up valuing, say Minnesota (a 10-hour drive) over schools that are *much* closer. Cincinnati is just a little over an hour from Lexington, but will be in another "Region." THAT'S why mileage is important, imho. Arlie's argument is that it will even out overall, because Kentucky will get leftovers from Florida and Georgia in particular. This is probably true. However, if I were a WV or KY fan, I'd be getting annoyed that I was losing kids from places that normally my roster is peppered with kids from. [quote]what would *really* be ideal is for the game to keep track of your school's proficiency for each state/region, as a percentile or grade or whatever. when taking over kansas, you could work on establishing pipelines in texas to boost your texas presence and watch it grow over the years, from a D to a C to a B- etc etc. this is how programs are built.[/QUOTE]This kind of thing, if abled to be modeled at all in a first version, is usually a one-school thing, rather than an entire-state thing, due primarily to the resources involved in canvassing an entire significant-sized state that is some distance away. I've mentioned it before, but in the 80's and early 90's, Wisconsin established a consistent track record of signing recruits from Carver High School in Columbus, GA, but I don't recall any kids from any other schools in Columbus, let alone the entire state, going to Wisconsin.

[Hoos]

i think it is also important to attack this from the other side. this thread has looked at recruiting proximity mostly from the perspective of the recruit's decision making process. it is also important to look at the process schools go through to decide which players to recruit. in other recruiting engines (tcy in particular as the only other college fb sim) the colleges aren't charged nearly enough in recruiting capital ($, time, resources) to pursue players outside of their regions. charging more in "recruiting points" to go outside of your region would discourage schools from even going after a lot of the top talent. while i don't know specifics of how the real recruiting process works, i would guess that even a school like usc makes personal contact with only a fraction of the top players not in their area. anecdotally, usc isn't going to to charging into tx and fl to recruit the top 20 kids in each state because it isn't worth the effort and time knowing that the local schools have a leg up. instead they target a player or 2 that they feel they have a shot at. if they did go after the top 20 in each state they might actually land a couple more of the top players from distant areas, but they would be doing it at the expense of other aspects of their recruiting. just my nickel's worth of free advice...

[SkyDog]

[QUOTE=Hoos]i think it is also important to attack this from the other side. this thread has looked at recruiting proximity mostly from the perspective of the recruit's decision making process. it is also important to look at the process schools go through to decide which players to recruit. in other recruiting engines (tcy in particular as the only other college fb sim) the colleges aren't charged nearly enough in recruiting capital ($, time, resources) to pursue players outside of their regions.[/quote]Yes. I specifically mentioned this in the "ideas for TCY2" thread at FOFC. There is not NEARLY enough of a delta between elite teams and bottom-feeder teams in terms of recruiting resources. FBCB does this VERY well, though. [quote]charging more in "recruiting points" to go outside of your region would discourage schools from even going after a lot of the top talent. while i don't know specifics of how the real recruiting process works, i would guess that even a school like usc makes personal contact with only a fraction of the top players not in their area. anecdotally, usc isn't going to to charging into tx and fl to recruit the top 20 kids in each state because it isn't worth the effort and time knowing that the local schools have a leg up. instead they target a player or 2 that they feel they have a shot at. if they did go after the top 20 in each state they might actually land a couple more of the top players from distant areas, but they would be doing it at the expense of other aspects of their recruiting.[/quote]I assume you mean Southern Cal and not South Carolina here. If so, I can directly report on Southern Cal, as they are recruiting a kid (Asher Allen) who I know from the high school right around the corner from my house. The Trojans watched video on him, and Pete Carroll called him on Sunday to say that he's interested, and to invite the Allens to come out and see the campus. It sounds like if Asher (who'll be either a 4 or 5 star prospect) shows more than passing interest, they'll invest some resources in recruiting him. Spring practice started yesterday for Asher. Typically, when Tucker High holds spring practice, the recruiters come a-callin' big time. There's a scrimmage Saturday morning, and the spring game is 11 days away. I'll update you on which schools actually send people to come out to see him. Yesterday it was UNC, USC (Game****s), ND, and GT. In general, you're dead on. UGA is recruiting Matthew Stafford (probably because he's shown serious interest), but not the rest of the Top 10 players in Texas, by any means.

[Arlie Rahn]

I think a good point has been made here. Non-elite schools will not have the budget to go out and pan for recruits from out of their region. In fact, it's doubtful even better schools like Georgia would even consider a 3.5 kid from Ohio unless there is not talent for that position in the southeast. And, even then, it's doubftul a kid in a hotbed like Ohio would leave the midwest unless Georgia was a perfect fit. I would classify the overall logic in this manner: For 4 and 5 star recruits, prestige and non-location issues will often trump state schools unless a state school has an elite program with room for the kid. For 2.5 to 3.5 star recruits, location is more important as the kids will most likely not be targeted by top out of region schools due to their sheer cost and fact the elite schools will have similar players in their region "cheaper" to recruit. For kids below 2.5, location is extremely important as the average to below average schools going after them will not have the resources to recruit out of their region in most cases and state schools are even more likely. I hope this starts to clear up some of the issues.

[SkyDog]

[QUOTE=Arlie Rahn]I think a good point has been made here. Non-elite schools will not have the budget to go out and pan for recruits from out of their region. In fact, it's doubtful even better schools like Georgia would even consider a 3.5 kid from Ohio unless there is not talent for that position in the southeast. And, even then, it's doubftul a kid in a hotbed like Ohio would leave the midwest unless Georgia was a perfect fit. I would classify the overall logic in this manner: For 4 and 5 star recruits, prestige and non-location issues will often trump state schools unless a state school has an elite program with room for the kid. For 2.5 to 3.5 star recruits, location is more important as the kids will most likely not be targeted by top out of region schools due to their sheer cost and fact the elite schools will have similar players in their region "cheaper" to recruit. For kids below 2.5, location is extremely important as the average to below average schools going after them will not have the resources to recruit out of their region in most cases and state schools are even more likely. I hope this starts to clear up some of the issues.[/QUOTE]As I've said, in general, this sounds very solid. My biggest concern at this point is that dadgum region vs. distance issue, but it sounds like this could be tweaked at the 11th hour if necessary.

[AZJAZ]

Arlie I like your post and SkyDog I like yours as well. Arlie said what I was trying to say in a better fashion, and yeah SkyDog I did in a way help you to enforce your point.