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I might not be understanding some probabilities


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So I did some experimentation where I spammed low percentage moves, such as Women's Spear. At first you will miss a few times, but (at least on the games I tried in Indy) eventually I would always win by spamming it until the opponent seemed to be unable to dodge this or nearly any other move, including any finisher.

 

Likewise, I decided to spend a few games only blocking, and eventually any Indy opponent lost all stamina and couldn't do anything. I decided to do things that seemed like bad ideas, such as spamming break versus high-strength opponents, and once I get to about 44% health it started working every time and started looking like a brilliant strategy. Some of these games were 5* matches, and one was a match of the year candidate! I guess I stumbled on some ways to win every time at that level, but I looked at the probabilities of the moves and mostly had trouble understanding why spamming certain moves, that seem like bad ideas, works so well.

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While I'm at it, seems like there is a bug with Rana Pinfall? It's never in my move list, in any situation whatsoever. Tried to play a new gynmast-type character, but had to add non-gymnast moves because Rana Pinfall cannot be listed during a match. Had a long time to try it with opponents at 0% health, and they always eventually won because there is no finisher available.
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  • 5 weeks later...

<p>Just as an update to the first post, I still don't quite see what is happening at low health and stamina levels. I have played all 3 WS games now, and they are each a little different in this, but 2 of them have some form of it. </p><p> </p><p>

In WS1, my character often becomes absolutely godlike when exhausted and at danger energy, and cannot be hit with a finisher even by characters that outclass mine in every stat. I would chalk this up to randomness if it didn't happen nearly every time. With a reasonably low (24 or so) speed, Slip Out of Reverse DDT and things like that seems to be working every time, but opponents with 43 or so speed cannot dodge my finisher more than 2 or 3 times. Sometimes, after I get hit with 1 finisher and kick out, I won't likely be successfully hit by another one again, after many, many attempts (more than 10). Some of my opponents outclass me in every stat, and are equal in weight class, but have no chance of beating me. I can tell when it is going to happen: Avoid, Fight Back, Break, all work nearly every time, and theirs won't more than about 10% of the time, even when they have more of everything. </p><p> </p><p>

In WS2, things seem mostly ok, and so it is an exception, but still things can get a little strange. This might fall into the expectations of randomness, but maybe I should test more carefully.</p><p> </p><p>

In WS3, even with a poor character, I can spam heavy hitting, low probability moves such, as Women's Spear, and win nearly every time, and that low probably suddenly becomes a complete non-factor when I am at about 45%-75% health. After this gets started, my opponent is completely out of it, and gets hit by nearly everything and cannot hit me with anything serious for the most part. If I do intentionally stretch the match out, eventually I can get hit, but it is actually difficult to force this, even against a superior opponent. Momentum doesn't seem to affect this much.</p>

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  • 1 year later...
<blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="rbx4" data-cite="rbx4" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="44201" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>Just as an update to the first post, I still don't quite see what is happening at low health and stamina levels. I have played all 3 WS games now, and they are each a little different in this, but 2 of them have some form of it. <p> </p><p> In WS1, my character often becomes absolutely godlike when exhausted and at danger energy, and cannot be hit with a finisher even by characters that outclass mine in every stat. I would chalk this up to randomness if it didn't happen nearly every time. With a reasonably low (24 or so) speed, Slip Out of Reverse DDT and things like that seems to be working every time, but opponents with 43 or so speed cannot dodge my finisher more than 2 or 3 times. Sometimes, after I get hit with 1 finisher and kick out, I won't likely be successfully hit by another one again, after many, many attempts (more than 10). Some of my opponents outclass me in every stat, and are equal in weight class, but have no chance of beating me. I can tell when it is going to happen: Avoid, Fight Back, Break, all work nearly every time, and theirs won't more than about 10% of the time, even when they have more of everything. </p><p> </p><p> In WS2, things seem mostly ok, and so it is an exception, but still things can get a little strange. This might fall into the expectations of randomness, but maybe I should test more carefully.</p><p> </p><p> In WS3, even with a poor character, I can spam heavy hitting, low probability moves such, as Women's Spear, and win nearly every time, and that low probably suddenly becomes a complete non-factor when I am at about 45%-75% health. After this gets started, my opponent is completely out of it, and gets hit by nearly everything and cannot hit me with anything serious for the most part. If I do intentionally stretch the match out, eventually I can get hit, but it is actually difficult to force this, even against a superior opponent. Momentum doesn't seem to affect this much.</p></div></blockquote><p> </p><p> It's clear to me now!</p>
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  • 4 weeks later...

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