My Analysis On The Betting Lines

[Sons of Kohral]

As a daily gambler, the betting lines excited me a lot. In fact, in one of my dynasties, I made my own odds (albeit, I handicapped the fights quick and didn't do it right) and I'm always looking at odds and lines and whatnot.

 

So when I loaded up the game, I wanted to see the lines. Then I saw this:

 

Fighter A: -450

Fighter B: +180

 

Those odds are ridiculous! Whatever book put out those odds are juicing the hell out of the favorite.

 

The only thing I can assume is that the formula that Adam has calculate separate odds for both fighters which isn't what happens.

 

The way it usually works is, you take the odds of the favorite winning the match, multiply it by .80, add 10 and then round the result to the nearest ten.

 

For instance, in the example i used above:

 

450*.80+10= 370

 

Since the result is already a rounded number, we dont need to round it any more.

 

So for the match I had above, the odds would be:

 

Fighter A: -450

Fighter B: +370

 

Let's use another example. Let's say fighter A is given -255 odds against fighter B.

 

255*.80+10=214

 

You would round that to 210.

 

So the odds for the match would be:

 

Fighter A: -255

Fighter B: +210

 

The formula would be:

 

(Odds of Fighter A winning against Fighter B * .80)+10= True Odds for Fighter B

 

Round True odds to nearest tens place = Betting Line Odds

 

 

Any chance this could b fixed for the official release? This is much more realistic.

[BrokenCycle]

wat

[Sons of Kohral]

wat

 

Did something not make sense? If so, what? I'll try to explain it.

[ripwalk]

Did something not make sense? If so, what? I'll try to explain it.

 

I'm thinking he was probably just being a smart ass.

 

As for the suggestion itself, it's obviously up to Adam if that is something worth his time to program, etc., but I am thinking most people wouldn't be too bothered by this, as after all, it's an MMA sim, not a sports betting sim.

 

Keep in mind, this is also from someone who once floated the idea of fleshing out the odds portion of the game. In this thread, if you haven't seen it:

 

http://www.greydogsoftware.com/forum/showthread.php?t=245691

 

I have since however kind of dropped that idea, since I don't think it would be too heavily used or add much to the experience the way I had originally envisioned it.

[Sons of Kohral]

I understand, but Adam says he added it to add realism. If you want it to add realism, you might as well make the odds realistic.

 

Now, I have no idea what formulas or programming he utilized for creating the odds, but I'm saying that this basic formula will give you accurate odds each time. (Accurate in the sense that the underdog odds will be on par with what they should be based on the favorite odds)

 

Hey, we're essentially beta-testing the game, and this is something I see is off base.

[ripwalk]

I understand, but Adam says he added it to add realism. If you want it to add realism, you might as well make the odds realistic.

 

Now, I have no idea what formulas or programming he utilized for creating the odds, but I'm saying that this basic formula will give you accurate odds each time. (Accurate in the sense that the underdog odds will be on par with what they should be based on the favorite odds)

 

Hey, we're essentially beta-testing the game, and this is something I see is off base.

 

Hey honestly if this is an easy fix I'm all for it and as a sports better myself I'd appreciate realism in this field.

 

I know next to nothing about programming so I can't say the degree of difficultly it would take to implement it, but I also know a programmers' pet peeve is people thinking something would just be easy to add, when that is often not the case.

 

Perhaps but this in the suggestions forum, since I know Adam is quite particular about suggestions going in the proper forum?

 

That might help your case.

[kje3334]

Where are the betting lines? I haven't found them yet and never saw anything in the help file.

[flaviooooo]

I was searching for it as well. I think you can see them when you press the VS-image while a fight is going on.

Would be cool if you could see it before the event starts as well...

[BYU 14]

If this fix is doable I think it is a good idea, as Kohral says it gets it more in line with RL money lines.

[Sons of Kohral]

When you're watching the pbp, click the top middle in between the two names of the fighters. It gives you the tale of the tape for the individual fight and gives you the line.

 

Adam hasn't commented on this thread or the one in the suggestions forum. We'll see. I really hope he implements a this formula, if its possible of course.

[Tag01]

When you're watching the pbp, click the top middle in between the two names of the fighters. It gives you the tale of the tape for the individual fight and gives you the line.

 

Adam hasn't commented on this thread or the one in the suggestions forum. We'll see. I really hope he implements a this formula, if its possible of course.

 

Yea, I agree with your analysis that they're off.

[Brush With Greatness]

Is it just me or do the odds seem too great as well?

 

I am seeing way too many +500/+600 or -500/-600 type of lines on all cards. The only time I've seen something like that in the past few UFC cards is a Phil Davis fight or Couture/Toney.

 

I would also like to know how the game calculates the odds. Is it merely basing it off the quality of (an unmasked) fighter? Or does it take into account the fog of war, name value, reputation, aura, etc.

[green ribbon]

Is there an option for a fractional betting line because im Irish and I dont have a clue what all this + - thing is.

[Greek]

Is there an option for a fractional betting line because im Irish and I dont have a clue what all this + - thing is.

 

Same here! I know the principle behind these kind of odds but I would still very much prefer to have the option of have different types of odds. More spesifically I would like to have decimal odds... I assume it's not that hard to code but I'm not sure if this is really a top priority for Adam. Hopefully he will come around to it at some point

[praguepride]

It converts fractions into real dollars

 

 

+ = how much money you'd win if you bet $100. So +450 means you'd win $450 if you put $100 on the match

 

 

(this converts to 9/2 odds)

 

 

- = how much money you'd have to put down to WIN $100. So -450 means that you'd have to put down $450 dollars to win $100 (2:9 odds)

 

 

To convert to fractions, for +'s, divide by 100, for -'s it's 100/line

[Sons of Kohral]

The +/- system is American. I find it a lot easier but that's because I'm used to it and have been betting a long time.

 

If anyone would be interested, I can create an excel spreadsheet that would convert the odds for you.

[green ribbon]

It converts fractions into real dollars

 

 

+ = how much money you'd win if you bet $100. So +450 means you'd win $450 if you put $100 on the match

 

 

(this converts to 9/2 odds)

 

 

- = how much money you'd have to put down to WIN $100. So -450 means that you'd have to put down $450 dollars to win $100 (2:9 odds)

 

 

To convert to fractions, for +'s, divide by 100, for -'s it's 100/line

 

The +/- system is American. I find it a lot easier but that's because I'm used to it and have been betting a long time.

 

If anyone would be interested, I can create an excel spreadsheet that would convert the odds for you.

 

Thanks for the help lads I understand it much better now

[EddieFnG]

The +/- system is American. I find it a lot easier but that's because I'm used to it and have been betting a long time.

 

If anyone would be interested, I can create an excel spreadsheet that would convert the odds for you.

 

This would be highly appreciated as American odds confuse the *bleep* out of me.

[Sons of Kohral]

No problem. I'll post it in this thread tomorrow.

[Jaded]

The +/- system is American. I find it a lot easier but that's because I'm used to it and have been betting a long time.

 

If anyone would be interested, I can create an excel spreadsheet that would convert the odds for you.

 

There's always http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/odds-converter.aspx if people want it.

[Sons of Kohral]

There's always http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/odds-converter.aspx if people want it.

 

Are you an sbr guy!?!??! I LOVE SBR. There and here every day lol. Great for anyone interested in betting. Just watch out for JJGold.

 

By the way, is Adam going to do anything about this? He's commented on almost everyone's suggestion and thread about the game except this one and that usually means he doesn't think it warrants a response. I hope that's not the case and would like a little feedback from him.

[Stennick]

PM him SOK

[Sons of Kohral]

PM him SOK

 

Just did. Really hoping this gets fixed because I have a great idea for a diary which involves a guy trying to turn $100 into a million.

 

Only betting in XCC of course lol.

[ripwalk]

Just did. Really hoping this gets fixed because I have a great idea for a diary which involves a guy trying to turn $100 into a million.

 

Only betting in XCC of course lol.

 

That would be a fun read I'm sure!

[Sons of Kohral]

Is it just me or do the odds seem too great as well?

 

I am seeing way too many +500/+600 or -500/-600 type of lines on all cards. The only time I've seen something like that in the past few UFC cards is a Phil Davis fight or Couture/Toney.

 

I would also like to know how the game calculates the odds. Is it merely basing it off the quality of (an unmasked) fighter? Or does it take into account the fog of war, name value, reputation, aura, etc.

 

I assume the lines are going to be sharp, which means it probably takes the unmasked stats. This is an assumption, but when I pit two 1-0 guys against each other, one is usually favorited -250 or so. Haven't really seen a -108/+102 match up yet.

 

As for the big odds differeces, I haven't really encountered this problem. The odds for the favorite seem pretty accurate, if not juiced a little higher than I would expect. It depends what company you play as. XCC is small with a few great fighters, so you tend to see bigger -600/+500 match ups. Elvis Millisis is a fighter who is really good but has only a 3-0 record. If you put him against a guy you just signed, then -600/+500 seems fair to me.

 

Now, if you see this in GAMMA with a Foster/Hughes match, then that's something to be a little more worried about.