Sons of Kohral Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 "There's only one certainty in gambling... the house ALWAYS wins" It's every gamblers dream. Hitting the jackpot. Starting with nothing and turning it into something. We're here to prove that it can be done. Given enough time and the right money management system, we're confident that you can turn $100 into the elusive $1,000,000. Don't believe us? Then follow us on our journey. I assure you, the road will be very long and fraught with challenges, but in the end, we will be victorious. Our team of handicappers will work around the clock to point out potential mismatches and steer you in the right direction. Feel free to follow or fade, but I have a feeling you'll be following soon enough. Best of luck, Luke Carter President of TripleASports.com --- The odds system seems to have been fixed in the patch, as it seems they're calculated mainly using reputation and I've seen ALOT of underdogs win. Because of this, I think it's safe to start this diary. Of course, we need some ground rules. The Rules: 1. I will bet only on GAMMA matches, as it is the company I'll be running and I'm not too familiar with their current fighter's stats (I'm an XCC and WEFF guy myself) 2. Eye for talent score is 0. On top of that, I WILL NOT EVER look at the "scouting" screen for fighters. Instead relying on match write ups and past results. 3. I will try and book as fairly as possible using reputation as my guide. Title matches will always be GAMMA's #1 & #2 fighter (unless #2 already lost to the champ, thus resulting in #3 getting a shot, etc.) 4. I notice one discrepancy. There seem to be times where odds are: Fighter A: -150 Fighter B: -140 Or something similar to that. Most books wouldn't offer a line like that, because no one would bet on it. For the purpose of this challenge, out of sync lines like the above will be reduced to -110 odds on both fighters. This ensures fairness (the books don't really favorite either fighter) and realism (the -10 as opposed to just a PK factors in juice). Other rules may be added later on, or if any reader has any suggestion, feel free to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sons of Kohral Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Reference Page Gambling Terms Favorite: The fighter predicted to win Underdog: The fighter predicted to lose Chalk: Favorite Heavy Chalk: A fighter who is heavily favorited by the book Line: Another term for odds Play: A bet (i.e. "James Foster @ -220" would be a play) Book: The Book is a catch-all term for whoever is taking your bet. It could be a casino, an individual (a bookie) or an offshore website. Juice: Juice is a kind of fee that the book takes out. Think of it as a "processing fee". It's the reason you never see a bet pay out even and why the favorite odds never match the underdog odds Square: The public. The average bettor Sharp: The opposite of a square. An experienced or seasoned bettor More terms may be added when they come up Annual Stats To be updated every year of play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sons of Kohral Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GAMMA 22: Rubenstein vs. Ballard February 1998 Card Match 1: Woody "Buzzsaw Fierstein (10-2): +140 Adam "Hollywood" White (7-0): -190 Match 2: "The Modern Day Gladiator" Bryan Van Den Hauwe (15-4): -110 "The Calgary Assassin" Mike Watson (9-0): -110 Match 3: Dana "Danger Man" Delaney: (8-2): -110 Lloyd "The K.O. Kid" McAllister (12-3): -110 Match 4: Norbert "The Rock" Vinkus (2-0): +280 Collins Lundie: (8-3): -360 Match 5: Brandon "Sugar Rush" Sugar (24-4): -240 "The Truck Man" Truck Gleeson (21-4-1): +190 Match 6: Light Heavyweight Title Match "The Reaper" Spencer Rubenstein (13-4): -130 "The Big Dog" Linfield Ballard (20-7): +110 Analysis Hello members of Greydog Software. Thanks to an agreement worked out with your site, you'll all be able to view these picks free of charge. So get your betting slips out and let's get ready to win some money! Looking at the upcoming card, we have a board of 6 matches. Obviously, we wont bet on all 6 matches, rather, we're looking for picks that will give us the best value. The first match that jumps out is Van Den Hauwe vs. Watson. Watson is an elite level kick boxer with very good takedown defense while Van Den Hauwe is a very good wrestler who seems to struggle on his stand up. Both fighters are sitting at -110 which begs the question, does Vegas know something we don't? I say no, this is an errant line. An errant line is a gift for all sharp bettors and should be pounded. The only way Van Den Hauwe can win this match is by decision but I think his suspect chin will give way before the fight is done. Mike Watson is the Play of the Card. Analyzing the card further, we can find some more good value here. The Vinkus/Lundie fight looks like a complete mismatch, unless Lundie manages to test Vinkus' chin before the fight goes to the ground. I don't really see Vinkus ending the match (I don't understand why he's so heavily hyped) but we may see some lay and pray and the big underdog odds of +280 give us some great value. The third fight to look at is Delaney vs. McAllister. It's going to be a stand and bang war, but Delaney's mild cross training makes him a better overall fighter in my opinion. With both at -110, take Delaney here. Final Plays: Mike Watson @ -110: Risk $10 to win $9.09 Dana Delaney @ -110: Risk $10 to win $9.09 Norbert Vinkus @ +280: Risk $10 to win $28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sons of Kohral Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GAMMA 22: Rubenstein vs. Ballard February 1998 Match 1: Woody "Buzzsaw Fierstein (10-2): +140 Adam "Hollywood" White (7-0): -190 Notes: White was able to get Fierstein to the ground and pass guard with no problems Fierstein successfully defended armbars twice and managed to get the fight back standing White outstruck Fierstein and successfully used counter striking White Wins via UD 30-27 Match 2: "The Modern Day Gladiator" Bryan Van Den Hauwe (15-4): -110 "The Calgary Assassin" Mike Watson (9-0): -110 Notes: Hauwe attempted wall and stall tactics that were very effective until the ref separated them Watson showed off his power, trapping Hauwe against the cage with strikes Watson wins via TKO (Punches) in 4:56 of Round 1 Match 3: Dana "Danger Man" Delaney: (8-2): -110 Lloyd "The K.O. Kid" McAllister (12-3): -110 Notes: McAllister used kicks successfully, neutralizing Delaney's movement Delaney knocked McAllister down in Round 2 but couldn't capitalize Delaney wins via Split Decision Match 4: Norbert "The Rock" Vinkus (2-0): +280 Collins Lundie: (8-3): -360 Notes: Boring match Fight was kept standing Lots of speculative punching No real clean shots Both fighters recorded punching percentages at less than 30% connection rate Vinkus wins via UD 29-28 Match 5: Brandon "Sugar Rush" Sugar (24-4): -240 "The Truck Man" Truck Gleeson (21-4-1): +190 Notes: Sugar managed to take his opponent down easily and pass without a problem Gleeson showed great submission defense Gleeson hit a potential knock out blow in Round 3 with 12 seconds left that knocked Sugar down Sugar wins via UD 29-28 Match 6: Light Heavyweight Title Match "The Reaper" Spencer Rubenstein (13-4): -130 "The Big Dog" Linfield Ballard (20-7): +110 Notes: Round 1 belonged to Rubenstein who used his Muay Thai to completely dominate Ballard Rounds 2 and 3 belonged to Ballard who used counter striking effectively and answered back by knocking Rubenstein down once in each round Rubenstein copied Ballard's counter punching strategy and in Round 4 showed off his power Rubenstein wins via TKO (Punches) in 3:26 of Round 4 --- Nightly Record: 3-0 (100%), +$46.18 Year To Date Record: 3-0 (100%), +46.18 Current Bankroll: $146.18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlameSnoopy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Interesting idea for sure, and I will probably give this a look every now and then. And nice job with the first show, getting everything right is a fine start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sons of Kohral Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Interesting idea for sure, and I will probably give this a look every now and then. And nice job with the first show, getting everything right is a fine start. Thanks for the words. I'm actually really shocked. Dana looked like he was going to lose from the write up and the Vinkus match could seriously have gone either way. As any gambler can tell you, these streaks never last forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCW Mark Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Can someone explain the way that odds work? In England we use a different system. 2:3 would mean you bet £3 and win £2 (plus your stake back), 14:1 would be £1 to win £14 etc. How does that translate to the way these odds work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr T Jobs To Me Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Can someone explain the way that odds work? In England we use a different system. 2:3 would mean you bet £3 and win £2 (plus your stake back), 14:1 would be £1 to win £14 etc. How does that translate to the way these odds work? The pluses are what you would win if you bet $100, and the minuses are how much you would have to bet to win $100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
damonster Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just wondering, where can you see the odds? Is their an option? Is it only for the cversus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sons of Kohral Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GAMMA 23: Reguiero vs. Stephens Card March 1998 Match 1: "The Colorado Cobra" Ian Linderman (7-1): +120 "The Cleveland Stormer" Moss Gilbert (5-0): -160 Match 2: "The Hillbilly Hammer" Luke Hilton (7-0): -110 Bud "The Rocket" Brockett (7-0): -110 Match 3: Winston "The Skunk" Barnes (5-0): +180 Lawrence "The Law" Herringbone: -230 Match 4: "The Talented" Sutton Ripley (13-2): +200 Osmosis Benn (14-0): -260 Match 5: Aaron "The Patriot" McBroom (8-2): +190 Benny "The Jet" Danare (8-0): -250 Match 6: "The Street Fighter" Leon Banks (31-10): -110 Christopher "The Knife" Sharp (34-12): -110 Match 7: "The Iron Man" Junior Patinkin (14-1): +140 "The Punisher" Marlon John (11-0): -180 Match 8: "Spanish Silk" Julio Reguerio (20-0): -370 "The Strategist" Rufus Stephens (16-1): +290 Analysis So, last month we went perfect in our picks and increased our bankroll almost 50%! If you followed us, you know that it was definitely close, but remember, it doesn't matter how they get the win, all that matters is that the right side gets it. Right off the bat, Moss Gilbert is going to outstrike Ian Linderman. He's the better fighter and the -160 odds aren't bad. They're going to keep this standing up and regardless of if they do or not, Gilbert will have no problems winning this one. Remember the hype machine that was all over Christopher Sharp a few years ago? What happened? Oh yeah, he got knocked the hell out. Multiple times. Look for Leon Banks to do it again here. This tough boxer isn't going to give Sharp the opportunity to take him down. Play of the Card here. My last pick is probably going to draw some ire. At first, I wanted to put $30 on Osmosis Benn to win but then I started thinking about value. And who is the best overall value on this card? Rufus Stephens at +280. Yes, Julio Regueiro is undefeated and a great BJJ fighter and even ranked #2 Pound for Pound, so why would I take Stephens? Stephens isn't a slouch either. The only reason he's not rated as highly (He's sitting as the #10 Welterweight) is because he has that one loss. Trust me, the squares are going to be pounding Regueiro up until the fight. The sharp play here is Stephens. Final Card: Moss Gilbert @ -160: Risk $16 to win $10 Leon Banks @ -110: Risk $25 to win 22.73 Rufus Stephens @ +280: Risk $10 to win $28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sons of Kohral Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GAMMA 23: Reguiero vs. Stephens Card March 1998 Match 1: "The Colorado Cobra" Ian Linderman (7-1): +120 "The Cleveland Stormer" Moss Gilbert (5-0): -160 Notes: Gilbert used good movement to annoy Linderman with jabs Gilbert got low blowed in Round 2 Linderman hit some nice leg kicks, but not enough for it to be a real threat Gilbert wins via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28) Match 2: "The Hillbilly Hammer" Luke Hilton (7-0): -110 Bud "The Rocket" Brockett (7-0): -110 Notes: Hilton got zero offense Brockett walled and stalled then took his opponent down Brockett had effective ground and pound from side control Brockett wins via TKO (Strikes) in 3:35 of Round 1 Match 3: Winston "The Skunk" Barnes (5-0): +180 Lawrence "The Law" Herringbone: -230 Notes: Herringbone looked very lethargic in the cage, never really tried to end the fight Very boring match, neither fighter really did too much Herringbone wins via UD (30-27) Match 4: "The Talented" Sutton Ripley (13-2): +200 Osmosis Benn (14-0): -260 Notes: Ripley had great takedown defense Ripley's striking game was top notch and definitely outstruck Benn In Round 2, Ben managed to get a takedown and was able to capitalize Interesting note, Ripley hit 40 ground strikes Benn wins via TKO (Punches) in 4:19 of Round 2 Match 5: Aaron "The Patriot" McBroom (8-2): +190 Benny "The Jet" Danare (8-0): -250 Notes: Boring match, this was a stand and bang affair Neither fighter had a particularly high connection rate McBroom was winning on the score cards In Round 3 an uppercut secured victory for Danare Danare win via KO in 4:37 of Round 3 Match 6: "The Street Fighter" Leon Banks (31-10): -110 Christopher "The Knife" Sharp (34-12): -110 Notes: Banks went for Knock Out punches, but missed Sharp took Banks down ASAP and mounted Sharp wins via TKO (Punches) in 2:44 of Round 1 Match 7: "The Iron Man" Junior Patinkin (14-1): +140 "The Punisher" Marlon John (11-0): -180 Notes: Almost identical to last match, John went for takedown/mount early and got it John wins via TKO (Punches) in 3:16 of Round 1 Match 8: "Spanish Silk" Julio Reguerio (20-0): -370 "The Strategist" Rufus Stephens (16-1): +290 Notes: The whole fight was a wrestling match each man trying to out wrestle the other Regueiro was neutralized on the takedown Stephens used his dirty boxing and clinch game to wall and stall While Reguerio was walled, Stephens would hit lots of strikes Reguerio got cut pretty bad in Round 4 Stephens wins via UD (50-45) --- Nightly Record: 2-1 (66%), +$13 Year To Date Record: 5-1 (83%), +61.45 Current Bankroll: $161.45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batsnumbereleven Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 4. I notice one discrepancy. There seem to be times where odds are: Fighter A: -150 Fighter B: -140 Or something similar to that. Most books wouldn't offer a line like that, because no one would bet on it. For the purpose of this challenge, out of sync lines like the above will be reduced to -110 odds on both fighters. This ensures fairness (the books don't really favorite either fighter) and realism (the -10 as opposed to just a PK factors in juice). Actually, books do run to two odds-on opponents, particularly where there is a (very) low chance of a draw. -150 equates to approximately 4/6 in fractional terms, I think, and I've definitely seen closely matched contests where each of two opponents were ranked as odds-on to this extent, though it would be rare. A quick glance a ladbrokes.com shows that they have the 5th ODI between New Zealand and Pakistan with both sides offered at 5/6 (-120) for example, and the Bocek/Henderson match is listed at 20/21 (-105) vs 4/5 (-125). So although -140/-150 is rather ungenerous, it isn't completely unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sons of Kohral Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Actually, books do run to two odds-on opponents, particularly where there is a (very) low chance of a draw. -150 equates to approximately 4/6 in fractional terms, I think, and I've definitely seen closely matched contests where each of two opponents were ranked as odds-on to this extent, though it would be rare. A quick glance a ladbrokes.com shows that they have the 5th ODI between New Zealand and Pakistan with both sides offered at 5/6 (-120) for example, and the Bocek/Henderson match is listed at 20/21 (-105) vs 4/5 (-125). So although -140/-150 is rather ungenerous, it isn't completely unrealistic. Sorry friend, but I have to correct you here: Yes, you are right that we will see odds like that for soccer and 3 way line hockey, i.e. when there is a possibility for a draw. Straight MMA lines usually don't offer a draw (However, many books do allow you to bet on a draw prop). Most books I've dealt with will refund your wager UNLESS they offer a draw as a NON-PROP straight line. For instance, I had bet on Frankie Edgar at UFC 125. The match ended in a draw, therefore my bet was refunded since the book I used didn't offer a draw line as a non-prop. Soccer is different. They always offer a draw line as a non-prop bet. As for the Bocek/Henderson match, yes, you're absolutely correct. However, my issue isn't with a -105/-125 line. That line means it's ALMOST a Pick'em one fighter is SLIGHTLY favored over the other. Most books juice their even lines -10 which is why point spreads are worth -110. As you can see, Vegas isn't comfortable giving Bocek plus odds, so they give him -105, then give Henderson the appropriate favorite odds + juice which is why it comes up to -125. You will never see -140/-150 odds on a two way line. In fact, the upcoming Garcia/Phan match has fan favorited at -140 and Garcia the dog at the appropriate +110. A -150 favorite would yield a slightly bigger dog ~+120. So when I see -140/-150 in the game, I assume whatever formula has been used has a hiccup in it. You'll never see those odds unless your book is juicing the hell out of you. So, seeing how the computer thinks it will be close, I just reset the odds as a pick'em + normal juice = -110 odds for each. I gamble entirely too much for my own good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batsnumbereleven Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Surely in cases where there IS the possibility of a draw then the odds on wins are actually slightly MORE generous since there is a third possibility? Also, I see that Johnson/Yamamoto and Edgar/Maynard III are offered at +/-100/-130 (a 30 point overround), and Sanchez/Kampmann at +125/-155 (also a 30 point overround), so limiting your spreads to -110/-110 (a 20 point overround) seems to be rather generous on yourself. In fact, looking at Ladbrokes a 30 point overround seems to be the bare minimum that they would use, and this seems to correlate nicely with the odds that WMMA uses. PS: +100 and -100 are the same thing, effectively, right? Even money, where you stake 100 to win 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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