ampulator Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I bet he probably got some sort of guarantee of not being cut for a certain amount of fights. There is no other likely reason he would accept if he didn't get a good "deal" out of this. But more on the fight-do you guys think this is a winnable fight for Tito? Although I currently leans towards Rashad, Tito would have beaten him in their last fight if it weren't for his point deduction. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zoloftjunkie Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Tito has a shot imo. I think the long lay off for evans is going to hurt him. Don't really see this one being exciting, prob lots of lay and pray. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashleyholland Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 Now then you lot, get your reading gear around this...an in-depth look at the situation regarding Machida's management pulling him out of the fight. http://www.mmabay.co.uk/2011/07/14/whartons-analysis-dana-white-reveals-that-machida-went-back-on-his-word-for-money/ Also, LOL at me writing THREE news articles in the last 24 hours (all of which I spent time corroborating) on the Rashad/Davis/Machida/Tito situation. If that fight changes one more time, I'm going to personally punch all involved, then take all their mothers out for a nice seafood dinner and NEVER call them again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Well, Tito can get injured, if he isn't, already. I hope he doesn't, though. Out all his non-wins, the only fight where Tito can avenge, where the fighter either hasn't retired or beaten him pretty dominantly (if not outright finish him), is either Forrest Griffin or Rashad Evans. I think this is a second best fight for Tito-if he wasn't going to get Forrest Griffin, Rashad is a beatable, if tough, opponent for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantabulous Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 People are greatly overestimating Tito, I presume because he looked good in a short fight against a second-tier, if even that, Light Heavyweight. The lay-off might have hurt Rashad from a conditioning standpoint, but he has still greatly improved from the first fight, where he was never in danger of being finished by Tito and gave Tito problems. Fast forward to today, and it's four years later and Tito has gone through a whole bunch of surgeries and shown nothing outside of blitzing an overhyped Bader to show that he is any kind of threat to a fighter the calibre of Rashad. And that's not even taking into account the fact that Tito is taking a fight like this on such short notice and almost no real training for it. Evans is winning the fight, and it'll either be by stopping Tito with strikes or the ever-pleasing sprawl 'n stall decision. In other news, Nate Marquardt needs to just keep his mouth shut. Just, not talk at all. Ever again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashleyholland Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 People are greatly overestimating Tito, I presume because he looked good in a short fight against a second-tier, if even that, Light Heavyweight. The lay-off might have hurt Rashad from a conditioning standpoint, but he has still greatly improved from the first fight, where he was never in danger of being finished by Tito and gave Tito problems. Fast forward to today, and it's four years later and Tito has gone through a whole bunch of surgeries and shown nothing outside of blitzing an overhyped Bader to show that he is any kind of threat to a fighter the calibre of Rashad. And that's not even taking into account the fact that Tito is taking a fight like this on such short notice and almost no real training for it. Evans is winning the fight, and it'll either be by stopping Tito with strikes or the ever-pleasing sprawl 'n stall decision. MMA fans have short memories, usually covering about a fight or two and any big KO/submission/robbery that has taken place in a fighter's career. That's why I love betting on betfair - the site allows you to set your own odds and you only bet against other people, not the house (they take a % of all winnings, that's their end) so you can make some great money against idiots who saw Tito's last fight and know that he nearly won last time, so are convinced he has a 50-50 chance against Rashad in 2011. Now if you look at the actual odds set by the oddsmakers, they tell you all you need to know about this fight. Rashad opened at -500. That means you'd have to risk $500 to win $100. 5-1, or 83%...so they're giving Ortiz a 17% chance of winning the fight. Putting actual percentages on it for anything other than actually making odds is pretty silly, but there's something about that number that seems pretty much dead on :-p In other news, Nate Marquardt needs to just keep his mouth shut. Just, not talk at all. Ever again. Yeah, he's not helping himself. It's a problem in the days of social media, and one I've talked about a lot on our show...fighters in his position should not be saying anything that isn't pre-approved my their management, and for the most part, MMA managers haven't got their heads around proper PR yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedsRule Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 People are greatly overestimating Tito, I presume because he looked good in a short fight against a second-tier, if even that, Light Heavyweight. The lay-off might have hurt Rashad from a conditioning standpoint, but he has still greatly improved from the first fight, where he was never in danger of being finished by Tito and gave Tito problems. Fast forward to today, and it's four years later and Tito has gone through a whole bunch of surgeries and shown nothing outside of blitzing an overhyped Bader to show that he is any kind of threat to a fighter the calibre of Rashad. And that's not even taking into account the fact that Tito is taking a fight like this on such short notice and almost no real training for it. Evans is winning the fight, and it'll either be by stopping Tito with strikes or the ever-pleasing sprawl 'n stall decision. In other news, Nate Marquardt needs to just keep his mouth shut. Just, not talk at all. Ever again. Tito almost guillotined him at the end of round two. He got the guillotine and swept to full mount from it. Tito won that fight, point deduction or not. He won't stop Tito, regardless of peoples opinions, he has only been stopped by Prime Chuck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashleyholland Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 Tito almost guillotined him at the end of round two. He got the guillotine and swept to full mount from it. Tito won that fight, point deduction or not. He won't stop Tito, regardless of peoples opinions, he has only been stopped by Prime Chuck. And Frank Shamrock. And Guy Mezger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantabulous Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Rashad is very likely to going to win this fight, probably stopping Tito or at least giving him a severe beating, but there will be enough legitimate reasons for Tito not having a great showing, that you'll still have people convinced the 'old' Tito is really back. Let's say, though, that a miracle occurs and Tito actually wins. You'll have people clamouring for Tito to get a shot at the Light Heavyweight title. If he faces Jones, he's getting slaughtered. But if Rampages upsets the odds and takes the title from Jones, hasn't Tito long said that he won't fight Jackson? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashleyholland Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 Rashad is very likely to going to win this fight, probably stopping Tito or at least giving him a severe beating, but there will be enough legitimate reasons for Tito not having a great showing, that you'll still have people convinced the 'old' Tito is really back. Let's say, though, that a miracle occurs and Tito actually wins. You'll have people clamouring for Tito to get a shot at the Light Heavyweight title. If he faces Jones, he's getting slaughtered. But if Rampages upsets the odds and takes the title from Jones, hasn't Tito long said that he won't fight Jackson? That was a while ago, they'd fight now for the money that they'd get. Also Dana just said on the conference call that if Tito beats Evans, he'll likely become the number 1 contender, or at least number three in the UFC pecking order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantabulous Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 If Tito wins, the only guy I can see being above him is Machida, and I don't think they like Machida enough right now to give him the next title shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Shape Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Maybe they'd have him fight Machida for the shot, but it's hard to see them doing that with the way this whole thing has gone down. So maybe Machida would have to fight someone else, and if he won convincingly he could be next in line. Torn on this fight as I love the comeback story but have much more of an appetite for Jones/Evans than Jones/Tito. With that said I know that while watching the fight I'll be cheering like hell for Tito to pull it off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d_w_w Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Maybe they'd have him fight Machida for the shot, but it's hard to see them doing that with the way this whole thing has gone down. So maybe Machida would have to fight someone else, and if he won convincingly he could be next in line. Torn on this fight as I love the comeback story but have much more of an appetite for Jones/Evans than Jones/Tito. With that said I know that while watching the fight I'll be cheering like hell for Tito to pull it off. Me too. I don't really think Tito can win the fight and I'm not really sure that I want to see Jones (or Jackson)/Tito, but the comeback aspect is pretty compelling. If Tito could win this match and get a shot at the title, it's almost like the story was made for a movie. Brash kid rises in the UFC, falls, then has a moment of glorious comeback. He wouldn't even need to win for the story to feel complete. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Rashad is very likely to going to win this fight, probably stopping Tito or at least giving him a severe beating, but there will be enough legitimate reasons for Tito not having a great showing, that you'll still have people convinced the 'old' Tito is really back. Let's say, though, that a miracle occurs and Tito actually wins. You'll have people clamouring for Tito to get a shot at the Light Heavyweight title. If he faces Jones, he's getting slaughtered. But if Rampages upsets the odds and takes the title from Jones, hasn't Tito long said that he won't fight Jackson? STOPPING Tito? If you say dominate Tito like Machida and Hamill dominate Tito, sure, that's absolutely the most likely outcome. I thnk that Rashad having a very one-sided decision in his favor is the most likely outcome. But stopping Tito? Only three people have stopped him before, and it's a been a long, long time. The only two people to have a KO/TKO over him is Lidell, twice, and Mezger, and he beat Mezger in a rematch. The only person to submit Tito is Frank Shamrock, and that was early in his career. All his other losses are through decision. What you makes think a stoppage is likely? It's not like Rashad prefers to spraw and brawl. But you are correct in Rashad will will probably win. I say by one-sided decision, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigpapa42 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Actually, if Tito did win the fight - unlikely, but nothing is impossible - a title shot makes sense. Simply for that fact that you can sell that fight. There might be title challengers that make more sense from a standpoint of having done more recently, but that is a main event that could draw a strong buy rate. And the UFC needs that at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Actually, if Tito did win the fight - unlikely, but nothing is impossible - a title shot makes sense. Simply for that fact that you can sell that fight. There might be title challengers that make more sense from a standpoint of having done more recently, but that is a main event that could draw a strong buy rate. And the UFC needs that at this point. I don't disagree, but I think it has less to do PPV, and more with getting the most use out of Tito-he's 36, he's been fighting for a long time, and he's had a lot of inuries. At 450,000 a fight, he costs way too much to be NOT fighting at the Main Event for a title shot. If he wins, they will be getting the most of Tito they are probably get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantabulous Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 What you makes think a stoppage is likely? It's not like Rashad prefers to spraw and brawl. I think Rashad has the punching power that if he can keep it standing, then Tito could take some heavy hits which is how Chuck stopped him in both of their fights. I think Rashad has improved a great deal from the first fight, and conversely Tito has declined somewhat, to where I expect Tito to have trouble taking Rashad down and even more trouble keeping him there. Rashad's best chance of finishing Tito is to keep it standing and just batter Tito in the stand-up. The one thing Tito hasn't faced in a good few fights is someone with power behind their punches, and Rashad has that. The one factor that I think could make this a dull fight, is if Rashad has been spooked by Tito finishing Bader, and he decides to play safe and keep it a wrestling match. Rashad went from a title shot to contenders fight, and there is always the chance he decides not to risk that and fight a safe, but boring, style. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 ... And what makes you think he will stop Tito? A lot of people kept it standing against Tito, and none of them finished him. Rashad isn't Lidell when it comes to stand-up. You never answered that question. Batter him? Sure. Stop him? Really? Like Lidell? Who else has done KOed Tito? I think you are obviously overreaching here. if you HOPE that Rashad KOs tito, that's one thing, but looking at Rashad's past fights and Tito's lack of being KOed by others, do you do you really think it's likely to happen? Rashad's probably going to win, and probably one-sided decision. But that's far as I expect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantabulous Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 ... And what makes you think he will stop Tito? I hate to repeat myself it looks like I have to: I think Rashad has the punching power that if he can keep it standing, then Tito could take some heavy hits which is how Chuck stopped him in both of their fights. I'll simplify it even more: Rashad hits really hard. Tito hasn't shown the best of striking defence and has been finished with barrages. Rashad hitting Tito really hard with a barrage = Tito getting finished. That is how I think it could happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I hate to repeat myself it looks like I have to: I'll simplify it even more: Rashad hits really hard. Tito hasn't shown the best of striking defence and has been finished with barrages. Rashad hitting Tito really hard with a barrage = Tito getting finished. That is how I think it could happen. Yeah, I saw those the first time. I still don't get how you, if you look at Rashad's AND Tito's history of matches combined, plus their match against each other, that this is the likely outcome. Rashad winning? Pretty much. Rashad finishing Tito? Look at his last three losses: Unaminous Decision, Unaminous Decision, Unaminous Decision. And then before, a draw against Rashad himself, which would have a W for Tito if it weren't what he did to get a point deduction. The last person to stop Tito was Chuck, and Chuck's stand-up, his prime, is not where Rashad's is at. "Hitting hard" isn't enough. It's not like Rashad is used to sprawl and brawl style that Chuck had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantabulous Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Bad news for Nate; Bellator don't want him at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashleyholland Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 But stopping Tito? Only three people have stopped him before, and it's a been a long, long time. The only two people to have a KO/TKO over him is Lidell, twice, and Mezger, and he beat Mezger in a rematch. The only person to submit Tito is Frank Shamrock, and that was early in his career. Mezger submitted Tito with a guillotine choke. Frank finished him with strikes. Tito ended up on all fours with Frank hammer-fisting him in the side of the head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashleyholland Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 Bad news for Nate; Bellator don't want him at the moment. I'm gonna be asking BAMMA on Monday afternoon what their position is. They were waiting for his suspension to resolve itself, which it has. Money could be a barrier, but if he has nowhere else to go... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Mezger submitted Tito with a guillotine choke. Frank finished him with strikes. Tito ended up on all fours with Frank hammer-fisting him in the side of the head. Thanks for correcting me-Mezger submitted him, Shamrock was punching him. But more on point... Tito can be finished, but it's not going to be easy to do. He isn't exactly like Chuck or Wanderlei in terms of losing his Chin, and he hasn't been submitted in a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantabulous Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard III headlines UFC 136 Zero interest in this fight. Joe Lauzon vs. Melvin Guillard at UFC 136 I like this fight in theory but I'm a fan of both fighters so I'm not happy it taking place but it should be good. Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione at UFC 137 Fairly interested in this fight and hoping Kongo KO's Mitrione Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian all but confirmed No idea when it'll take place due to Aldo being hurt, but I hope he comes back at his best so he can take Florian apart and pound him mercilessly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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