The Shape Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 <p>I like the big numbered events getting 5 round main events for stuff that really matters, but doing it for 2 hour shows on Versus etc as well just seems ill-advised, fights won't always warrant it and it'll distort clarity in terms of who stands where in a division based on how many 5 rounders they've had etc.</p><p> </p><p> As for tonight, growing feeling as it nears that Carwin is gonna KTFO JDS in the first few minutes. I hope I'm wrong though as I really want to see JDS vs. Cain.</p> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantabulous Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 <blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="The Shape" data-cite="The Shape" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="26660" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div><p> As for tonight, growing feeling as it nears that Carwin is gonna KTFO JDS in the first few minutes. I hope I'm wrong though as I really want to see JDS vs. Cain.</p></div></blockquote><p> I know Carwin has a 'punchers chance' and he can hit really hard; although it bordered on the ridiculous when his coach all but said Carwin had the best stand-up in the UFC. But Carwin is really only going to win this fight within the first few minutes, if he overwhelms JDS and just mauls him. Cain did have Lesnar in trouble, although I don't think it was as much trouble as it appeared when watching live. But I think JDS can deal with strikes better than Lesnar, I think his punch defence is better than Lesnar, and I think that takes away a lot from what is Carwin's best and, really, only chance to win. It might be rough for a few minutes, and this might be overstating things, but I don't think Carwin is going to provide much of a challenge in the end.</p> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daffanka Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 <blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="The Shape" data-cite="The Shape" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="26660" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>I like the big numbered events getting 5 round main events for stuff that really matters, but doing it for 2 hour shows on Versus etc as well just seems ill-advised, fights won't always warrant it and it'll distort clarity in terms of who stands where in a division based on how many 5 rounders they've had etc.<p> </p><p> As for tonight, growing feeling as it nears that Carwin is gonna KTFO JDS in the first few minutes. I hope I'm wrong though as I really want to see JDS vs. Cain.</p></div></blockquote><p> </p><p> I'd never discount anyone that has Carwin's power in an MMA fight but I honestly think JDS is a pretty dreadful match up for him. He's fighting a guy who's a hundred times quicker with much crisper technique who will kill him in a clean fight, and if he wants to fight gritty by doing what he did to Mir he's gotta close the distance which against JDS has gotten a lot of people smashed by uppercuts. I think JDS' ability to effectively fight off his back foot with power is probably his most underrated skill, it gave a lot of very good fighters fits when they fought Chuck and it's going to give Shane fits when he's closing the distance for a clinch or a takedown.</p><p> </p><p> Here's some picks because I feel like being wrong:</p><p> </p><p> <strong>dos Santos</strong> by KO. Probably late first or early second round.</p><p> </p><p> <strong>Kenflo</strong> by unanimous decision. Unless he's really messed up his cut.</p><p> </p><p> <strong>Jon Olav Einemo</strong> by submission. Repping my fellow Scandinavian here even though he hasn't fought for about a century.</p><p> </p><p> <strong>Demian Maia</strong> by submission. Unless he gets clocked first because MMA is stupid and makes no sense.</p><p> </p><p> <strong>Donald Cerrone</strong> by whatever over that other guy.</p> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 <blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="Fantabulous" data-cite="Fantabulous" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="26660" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>I know Carwin has a 'punchers chance' and he can hit really hard; although it bordered on the ridiculous when his coach all but said Carwin had the best stand-up in the UFC. But Carwin is really only going to win this fight within the first few minutes, if he overwhelms JDS and just mauls him. Cain did have Lesnar in trouble, although I don't think it was as much trouble as it appeared when watching live. But I think JDS can deal with strikes better than Lesnar, I think his punch defence is better than Lesnar, and I think that takes away a lot from what is Carwin's best and, really, only chance to win. It might be rough for a few minutes, and this might be overstating things, but I don't think Carwin is going to provide much of a challenge in the end.</div></blockquote><p> I think you aren't looking at the whole situation. If Carwin can get it to the ground, he will likely win. However, if Dos Santos can keep it standing, then he will likely win. It will be extreme unlikely for Carwins to win if he can't get it the ground, and it's also there a chance that Dos Santos will lose if he get can't keep it standing. </p><p> </p><p> However, if Dos Santos can keep it past the first round, and definitely past the second, then he will. </p><p> </p><p> My prediction is as follows:</p><p> </p><p> 1. Carwin, first-round TKO (Take him down and ground and pound him)</p><p> 2. Dos Santos, Second or Third Round KO (Carwin gasses) </p><p> </p><p> I think either of this is probably the most likely outcome. It will be stupid for Carwin to keep it standing, and it be in Dos Santos interests to keep it standing and making it out of the first round.</p><p> </p><p> </p><blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="Daffanka" data-cite="Daffanka" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="26660" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>I'd never discount anyone that has Carwin's power in an MMA fight but I honestly think JDS is a pretty dreadful match up for him. He's fighting a guy who's a hundred times quicker with much crisper technique who will kill him in a clean fight, and if he wants to fight gritty by doing what he did to Mir he's gotta close the distance which against JDS has gotten a lot of people smashed by uppercuts. I think JDS' ability to effectively fight off his back foot with power is probably his most underrated skill, it gave a lot of very good fighters fits when they fought Chuck and it's going to give Shane fits when he's closing the distance for a clinch or a takedown.</div></blockquote><p> </p><p> Can you elaborate more on this? I don't understand. </p><p> </p><p> </p><blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="Daffanka" data-cite="Daffanka" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="26660" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>Here's some picks because I feel like being wrong:<p> </p><p> <strong>dos Santos</strong> by KO. Probably late first or early second round.</p><p> </p><p> <strong>Kenflo</strong> by unanimous decision. Unless he's really messed up his cut.</p><p> </p><p> <strong>Jon Olav Einemo</strong> by submission. Repping my fellow Scandinavian here even though he hasn't fought for about a century.</p><p> </p><p> <strong>Demian Maia</strong> by submission. Unless he gets clocked first because MMA is stupid and makes no sense.</p><p> </p><p> <strong>Donald Cerrone</strong> by whatever over that other guy.</p></div></blockquote><p> </p><p> Kenny Florian or Diego Nunes: I don't know. I'm going to go Kenny Florian as well, but it's a hard pick. </p><p> Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman: Another tough pick. Dave Herman?</p><p> Demian Maia vs. Mark Muñoz: This one's hard to say also. If Maia goes to the ground voluntarily, I can see him submitting Munoz. But Munoz knocks him out or down, then it's KO or TKO for Munoz. I'll say... Mark Muñoz. I wouldn't be surprised if Maia wins, though. That being said, his weakness if strikers he can't take down. </p><p> </p><p> I don't have an informed opinion on the other fights.</p> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Shape Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Don't think Carwin necessarily needs to GNP as much as just bash him against the cage like he did Mir. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 <blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="The Shape" data-cite="The Shape" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="26660" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>Don't think Carwin necessarily needs to GNP as much as just bash him against the cage like he did Mir.</div></blockquote><p> Oops, I forgot to add that as a possiblity as well. I agree that's also a possibility. But that's another question.... how good is Dos Santos in the clinch?</p> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daffanka Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 <blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="ampulator" data-cite="ampulator" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="26660" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div><p> Can you elaborate more on this? I don't understand. </p><p> </p></div></blockquote><p> </p><p> Carwin moves like a robot in the best of times and he's coming off back surgery, fighting one of the quickest and most fluid heavyweights there is. If he tries to actually strike with dos Santos he'll be outworked by a much faster guy who throws with much cleaner technique and has a real knack for finding openings for counters.</p><p> </p><p> Reportedly dos Santos has some very good hips and he's excellent at getting off his back but we've never actually seen it in a fight so presumably Carwin's best chance is to close the distance and either go for a takedown or clinch JDS against the cage and drop some hammers. The problem is the aforementioned difference in speed and the fact that JDS has shown real ability to punish people who attempt to close and even if JDS is moving back he can land hard punches - much like Chuck in his heyday.</p><p> </p><p> So I think Carwin's best chance to win is to close the distance in a Henderson-esque manner where he throws hard punches to cover the distance and initiate the clinch, constantly mixing between clinching and throwing hard shots. Ideally he'd either put JDS against the fence or hit him hard for a swarming stoppage. But if he's too slow or telegraphs his intentions too clearly he's going to get hit.</p><p> </p><p> Saying all this, Carwin might win in 30 seconds because he hits really hard and MMA is very unforgiving defensively.</p> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 I see. I can agree on those points. But if Carwin can take him down and Dos Santos can't get up, his in serious trouble. If he can't get off against the cage against Carwin, he's also in trouble. But if Dos Santos can get past the first round, he will likely win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Michihiro Omigawa won that fight. Darren Elkins landed more shots, but Omigawa landed more effective ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Joey Beltran vs. Aaron Rosa: Fight of the Night? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJoel Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Whatever bad taste was in my mouth because of that bull**** decision has now been replaced with loads of sugar, thanks to Joey Beltran and Aaron Rosa. Early fight of the night contender there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justtxyank Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Saying all this, Carwin might win in 30 seconds because he hits really hard and MMA is very unforgiving defensively. This... Carwin might blitz Dos Santos and take him out early. If he doesn't I think Dos Santos and his technical striking and speed will let him outwork Carwin something fierce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 This... Carwin might blitz Dos Santos and take him out early. If he doesn't I think Dos Santos and his technical striking and speed will let him outwork Carwin something fierce. I think the more likely outcome is Carwin gasses and loses in the second round... if he doesn't win in the first. What the heck? I thought Jason Young won that fight! 30-27? Really? He didn't lose the second round! Good fight between Nick Ring vs. James Head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashleyholland Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 I think you aren't looking at the whole situation. If Carwin can get it to the ground, he will likely win. However, if Dos Santos can keep it standing, then he will likely win. It will be extreme unlikely for Carwins to win if he can't get it the ground, and it's also there a chance that Dos Santos will lose if he get can't keep it standing. Yeah, coz Carwin never won a fight that he didn't take down... Amp - You don't half talk some massive, massive s**t sometimes. I mean literally, I'm sat here with Robbie Olivier, Joachim Hansen and Oli Thompson and some of the best trainers you'be never heard of, and we're literally in tears here. You seem to argue the point just for the sake. Either your understanding of MMA is so basic that it doesn't bare listening to, or f**k, you should just call it quits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Yeah, coz Carwin never won a fight that he didn't take down... Amp - You don't half talk some massive, massive s**t sometimes. I mean literally, I'm sat here with Robbie Olivier, Joachim Hansen and Oli Thompson and some of the best trainers you'be never heard of, and we're literally in tears here. You seem to argue the point just for the sake. Either your understanding of MMA is so basic that it doesn't bare listening to, or f**k, you should just call it quits. Look, less on the insults. You might disagree with me, and that's fine. But I have never, ever, ever intentionally dissed anyone. Ever. I want to make that clear. But, more on your point, look, Carwin can win it standing. I never denied that. But against Dos Santos? Dos Santos has faster hands, and much crisper boxing technique. Sure, Cawin can clip him. That's always possible. But the thing is, I'm not saying ALWAYS, NEVERS. I'm using LIKELY"S, PROBABLY'S, CHANCE'S. You take my statements to the full extent, and that's not how they should been. As an example, I never said "He will never win via KO", it's more like, "He's unlikely to win via KO". The thing is, you are taking my statements I say as I'm 100% way or the other, zero-sum propositions. And that's not the case. There's a lot if, and's, and but's. There are no singular, zero-sum propositions I'm making. Do I make myself clear? Or do I need to tell everything I'm thinking, even if it's implicit and not explictly what I'm saying? You seem to think one thing of what I'm saying, and I'm saying another. You are thinking I'm saying something 100%, zero-sum, but I'm actually not. As for calling it quits, am I a journalist? Or referee? Or a judge? No. The thing is, some of you can't seem to get personally insulted when I challenge some of you. And some of you can't seem to separate yourself from your arguments. If I'm challenging what you are saying, it's a DEBATE, and it's nothing personal. DEBATES are fine. I like debating. But rarely do I ever go after people themselves. I have done it before, I'd give that, but I haven't done it this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoNdOn Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Yeah, coz Carwin never won a fight that he didn't take down... Amp - You don't half talk some massive, massive s**t sometimes. I mean literally, I'm sat here with Robbie Olivier, Joachim Hansen and Oli Thompson and some of the best trainers you'be never heard of, and we're literally in tears here. You seem to argue the point just for the sake. Either your understanding of MMA is so basic that it doesn't bare listening to, or f**k, you should just call it quits. Why I do believe you are name dropping sir. On an aside; I really laughed at that walking guillotine by Weidman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Why I do believe you are name dropping sir. On an aside; I really laughed at that walking guillotine by Weidman And this is an example where I separate myself from my arguments. But more on point, do I need to go into technical detail, step-by-step, carefully choosing the most politically correct words, saying the in most politically correct way possible, that can, only, definitely, taken one way? I can do that, but it would make for a lot of dry Legalese talk I care not to use. If you don't like what I'm saying, prove me 100% wrong. If my facts are wrong, then show it. But it's not cold, hard, facts, then don't bother. If you don't like the way I'm saying things, I can be use dry and boring technical needless descriptions. I would be writing an essay in every post if I do this, though. How many pages do you want? What me go do some academic research? What's your requirements here? If that's what you want, go ahead and say it. Look, I know Carwin won fights via KO. But Dos Santos's boxing is way better. Why bother standing up and trading when he could get clipped? Why not try to set up, through punches, a double-leg takedown, and then ground and pound Santos's face in? Why bother standing, when Dos Santos's has fast hands, good boxing technique, and decent power in his hands? Of course, he can beat Dos Santos with his Heavy Hands. But don't tell me which is smarter to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashleyholland Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 Why I do believe you are name dropping sir. Absolutely, I will name drop my mates for all they're worth :-P It'd be a good thing if they weren't eating all my food, drinking my beer and destroying my supplement/nutrition cupboard Unfortunately, that is not the case, and those Pikey SOB's the Maguire's have just arrived Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashleyholland Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 Look, less on the insults. You might disagree with me, and that's fine. But I have never, ever, ever intentionally dissed anyone. Ever. I want to make that clear. But, more on your point, look, Carwin can win it standing. I never denied that. But against Dos Santos? Dos Santos has faster hands, and much crisper boxing technique. Sure, Cawin can clip him. That's always possible. But the thing is, I'm not saying ALWAYS, NEVERS. I'm using LIKELY"S, PROBABLY'S, CHANCE'S. You take my statements to the full extent, and that's not how they should been. As an example, I never said "He will never win via KO", it's more like, "He's unlikely to win via KO". The thing is, you are taking my statements I say as I'm 100% way or the other, zero-sum propositions. And that's not the case. There's a lot if, and's, and but's. There are no singular, zero-sum propositions I'm making. Do I make myself clear? Or do I need to tell everything I'm thinking, even if it's implicit and not explictly what I'm saying? You seem to think one thing of what I'm saying, and I'm saying another. You are thinking I'm saying something 100%, zero-sum, but I'm actually not. As for calling it quits, am I a journalist? Or referee? Or a judge? No. The thing is, some of you can't seem to get personally insulted when I challenge some of you. And some of you can't seem to separate yourself from your arguments. If I'm challenging what you are saying, it's a DEBATE, and it's nothing personal. DEBATES are fine. I like debating. But rarely do I ever go after people themselves. I have done it before, I'd give that, but I haven't done it this thread. Don't get your knickers in a twist sunshine. People only get funny when you make grandiose statements. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Shape Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Sick KO by Stout. Good to see him not jump on the guy who was clearly out as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Don't get your knickers in a twist sunshine. People only get funny when you make grandiose statements. ....That's a fair point. I concede that. I can't say I have anything to say against that. But did you think Jason Young won or lost his fight against Dustin Poirer? Sick KO by Stout. Good to see him not jump on the guy who was clearly out as well. Damn. That sucks for Edwards... and my 20 bucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smurphy1014 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Carwin does have a solid wrestling background, which he hasn't used much in finishing fights since coming to the UFC. However, JDS isn't a slouch on the ground, what with being a brown belt in BJJ. In my opinion (and I am no expert by any means) this fight has the makings of a stand up war. Then again, now that I have said that this'll be a one round submission ending, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ampulator Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Carwin does have a solid wrestling background, which he hasn't used much in finishing fights since coming to the UFC. However, JDS isn't a slouch on the ground, what with being a brown belt in BJJ. In my opinion (and I am no expert by any means) this fight has the makings of a stand up war. Then again, now that I have said that this'll be a one round submission ending, lol. You know, no one knows how good JDS's ground game is. Well, almost no one. His training partners do. My wonder is, is can he get back up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashleyholland Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 We're sending Rosa and Beltran $1,000 each for their efforts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Shape Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 This is just embarrassing. Terrible matchmaking. I know it was a late replacement, but damn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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