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brashleyholland

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Yeah I got the same. Gomi's only dangerous the first minute of the fight and Florian's not nearly bad enough to get caught then. Plus Gomi's going to have to deal with elbows for the first time and his opponent is good at throwing them. Either TKO (cut) or rear naked choke on a gassed Gomi.

 

Nelson's going to win by virtue of being better at everything.

 

Quarry's going to wrassle Rivero to a decision.

 

Pearson's going to TKO Siver in the third or second.

 

Watch me get all my picks wrong.

 

e: in retrospect expecting quarry to wrassle is kind of a stupid pick but I stand by it!

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Who you got. Gomi or Florian?

 

Also do you believe Gomi when he says he isn't lazy anymore? I don't and think Kenflo subs him in the late second early third after Gomi gasses.

 

I don't believe any fighter who says they're back to their best etc without proving it. I call it the 'Brandon Vera Rule'. Gomi has been all talk for nearly five years now; but we've seen *nothing* to suggest that he's recaptured he old form or old motivation.

 

Here's the Gomi situation as I see it: Five years ago he was the 'ace' of Japanese MMA. He was cheaper and a hell of a lot more competitive than Yoshida/Ogawa, but still could pretty much write his own cheques in Pride. When Pride went bump he was the centre of a bidding war between SRC and FEG. He probably went to the wrong side, but that's retrospect. SRC now can't get the money together that he wants and FEG don't want him. There is such little faith in Gomi in Japan right now that a Gomi/Aoki superfight isn't considered a viable fight. That tells you how much Gomi has fallen.

 

He's now in a tough situation in an organisation that has no vested interest in protecting him, letting him come in heavy, not suspending him when he assaults fighters after the bell while being dragged away by officials and refs etc...

 

The UFC has such little faith in Gomi that they can't afford to give him a warm-up match in case he loses. It's 'go big or go home'. On the plus side, he's parleyed the situation into an immediate title shot if he puts Kenny away, but I wouldn't put $$$ on it. I'm thinking that Gomi might do a little better than most expect, but ultimately Kenny works him for three rounds for a decision.

 

My picks are here (cheap plug): http://www.mmabay.co.uk/2010/03/30/mmabay%E2%80%99s-ufc-fight-night-21-florian-vs-gomi-pre-event-preview-predictions/

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I think Gomi can win this one, but he has to fight aggressively. Florian is easily one of the most technically sound in the division, but when he takes damage his technique quickly becomes survival mode, and he makes reckless mistakes. Penn exploited that, and I think Gomi can do the same. He needs to hit Florian early, and then change it up from there, but constantly striking is his key to victory.
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I think Gomi can win this one, but he has to fight aggressively. Florian is easily one of the most technically sound in the division, but when he takes damage his technique quickly becomes survival mode, and he makes reckless mistakes. Penn exploited that, and I think Gomi can do the same. He needs to hit Florian early, and then change it up from there, but constantly striking is his key to victory.

 

If Gomi is going to win, he'll have to do it quick. The longer the fight, the better off KenFlo is.

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<p>After watching that fight last night, and seeing the size difference in Gomi and Florian, it quickly became apparent to me that Gomi needs to drop to Featherweight. Zuffa can still make some big bank off a Faber/Aldo vs. Gomi fight I would imagine.</p><p> </p><p>

The 4" reach advantage, which seemed/looked like an awful lot more than that, played a big role. Florian did a good job of avoiding punches, but you could definitely tell who was doing the most damage when a strike landed. </p><p> </p><p>

Gotta give it to Florian though, he's better every time he goes out there. And truthfully, I think it's time for him to get on a serious strength and conditioning program, and solidify himself a bit more. The one thing he's lacking right now is power.</p>

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<p>It pretty much went as I thought in Florian/Gomi, alot of big name foreign workers have troubles when coming to the UFC, theres been very few who have hit the ground running hot (hello Anderson) but theres many reasons on top of that</p><p> </p><p>

- Age/wear and tear, Gomi has been fighting for over 10 years and I think its clear his prime is most likely behind him after his back to back losses, sorry but I find it hard to believe someone considered one of the best is that motivated to get a UFC belt and revent a 7 year loss (BJ)</p><p> </p><p>

- Fluffed records, people talk about it all the time with Wanderlei but not many mention it (espeically the UFC!) with other Pride guys. I'm not saying Gomi didn't beat anyone good, but we all know Pride liked to pad guys especially their own. Florian on the other hand, has fought very very tough opponents in the UFC through out his time there, they may not all be top P4P but the UFC doesn't just pick scrubs off the street.</p><p> </p><p>

- The Octagon, two things here, the one most people miss is the shape, Japanese fighters are use to circling in a square boxing ring that can push people into the corners and attack, all of a sudden your foot work and movement and the amount of space you have in to move changes, yes you can train in one but as we all know in any athletic event the game itself is different (hello Cro Cop). Second of course is the cage, when Gomi rolled over it looked like his first reaction was reaching for a rope/out of the rope to get Florian initially off his back for the moment to at least reset, but of course the Octagon doesn't allow that and I think that is part of why he rolled to that side instead of the other way </p><p> </p><p>

- Respect, Florian said this and I agreed with him, while Florian said he totally respects Gomi, he questioned if Gomi would respect him or if he was just seeing him as a warm up for a BJ Penn fight, and I dont know Gomi or his training, but I think that probably played a factor b/c his strategy was not good. You could see his strategy was to clearly test Florian's striking and look for a big counter punch, problem being Florian's jab worked to perfection last night and his reach kep out of harms way easily</p><p> </p><p>

and man, Nelson KTFO of Struve, having a bug a$$ really helps, Nelson said it perfectly how Struve has the reach but his jab takes long cuz of it and time that sucker perfectly</p>

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<p>The competition is much stiffer and Gomi still hasn't realized that if you loop your punches around the moon before hitting someone with them you're gonna get smashed in the face by jabs.</p><p> </p><p>

I think people put a little too much weight into wear and tear instead of guys getting a lot better at fighting. Gomi's not significantly deteriorated (certainly not to the point of, say, Coleman) and he hasn't been taking huge shots for large parts of his career (Big Nog) so I think it's just a matter of him being unable to keep up with a new generation of fighters that scout their opponents, are much more well rounded and have much crisper techniques.</p><p> </p><p>

Gomi still hits hard as hell so they won't cut him but he's never going to be in title contention. If you want some top 10 Japanese fighters bring in Aoki and Kawajiri. Also bring in Kikuno because even though he'd almost certainly be wrestled to death we might get to see that kickass crescent body kick.</p><p> </p><p>

I like Florian but I have no interest in seeing a rematch between him and Penn. Hope Penn moves up so Florian can get that belt!</p><p> </p><p>

Also I just watched Okami - Linhares and Okami just tore him apart with jabs and uppercuts (!) for two rounds. Hope he can follow it up with another finish because he's a good fighter and I hate to see him in the undercard because he's not exciting to watch.</p>

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Gomi has been on a slide for years. He had some losses to cupcakes in Sengoku, and his wins since then have been against weak opponents. Even in victory he's looked shabby. The game has passed him by; a good chin and big power for a lightweight alone won't do it anymore.
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Good night of fights last night.

 

- Pearson is comming on very well. Looked very sharp on the feet and more than comfortable on the ground, which is promising. Not the finished article yet, but one of the better guys to come out of TUF IMO. Not sure whats next for him, maybe Tibau or Sam Stout? I would have said Duane Ludwig had it not been for his recent ankle issue.

 

- Wow, Nate Quarry lost me alot of money. We did an interview with him a few weeks ago and my editor pointed out that he didn't seem as posotive as when we'd spoken to him before and after the Credeur fight. He looked *very* stiff last night, almost robotic. It was a shooting gallery for Rivera, was surprised to see Nate make it out of the first. Will be interesting to see if anything comes out about an injury, but Quarry is the kind of guy to keep those things to himself. Next for Rivera could be someone like Sakara, or maybe even a rematch with Leben.

 

- Nelson taught me where I have been going wrong all these years, hitting the pads when I should have been hitting Burger King. Ok, I have been hitting BK as well, but not to the extent of Big Country. Nelson looked great slipping the jab and folding Struve like an accordion. The Dutchman has a great-looking record, but it's padded with one dimentional kickboxers and brawlers from the European circuit. Not sure where he goes from here, but he's still young. Nelson should get Frank Mir next. Gonzaga or Kongo would make good opponnts too...but I don't see the point in 'building' someone who's already at Nelson's level.

 

- I don't think many expected a different result in the main event, but there's always that part of you that wants guys like Gomi to recapture the magic, even if you don't believe they can. Florian was just too much for him on the night. I think there's still some entertaining fights for Gomi...Guillard, Guida and especially Nate Diaz...but if thats all he can do against Florian, then I dread to think what a Sherk, Griffin, Maynard etc will do to him.

 

- One thing that really stuck out for me...how on earth were Uno and Tibau in the same weightclass? Tibau's arms were almost the size of Uno's waist! I'm not one of these people who calls for guys to drop a weightclass every time they lose, but some of these fighters used to training and fighting in Japan all there lives need to seriously think about fighting at their natural weight (againt guys potentially 20lbs heavier) or making a small cut/losing weight.

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Good night of fights last night.

 

- Pearson is comming on very well. Looked very sharp on the feet and more than comfortable on the ground, which is promising. Not the finished article yet, but one of the better guys to come out of TUF IMO. Not sure whats next for him, maybe Tibau or Sam Stout? I would have said Duane Ludwig had it not been for his recent ankle issue.

 

- Wow, Nate Quarry lost me alot of money. We did an interview with him a few weeks ago and my editor pointed out that he didn't seem as posotive as when we'd spoken to him before and after the Credeur fight. He looked *very* stiff last night, almost robotic. It was a shooting gallery for Rivera, was surprised to see Nate make it out of the first. Will be interesting to see if anything comes out about an injury, but Quarry is the kind of guy to keep those things to himself. Next for Rivera could be someone like Sakara, or maybe even a rematch with Leben.

 

- Nelson taught me where I have been going wrong all these years, hitting the pads when I should have been hitting Burger King. Ok, I have been hitting BK as well, but not to the extent of Big Country. Nelson looked great slipping the jab and folding Struve like an accordion. The Dutchman has a great-looking record, but it's padded with one dimentional kickboxers and brawlers from the European circuit. Not sure where he goes from here, but he's still young. Nelson should get Frank Mir next. Gonzaga or Kongo would make good opponnts too...but I don't see the point in 'building' someone who's already at Nelson's level.

 

- I don't think many expected a different result in the main event, but there's always that part of you that wants guys like Gomi to recapture the magic, even if you don't believe they can. Florian was just too much for him on the night. I think there's still some entertaining fights for Gomi...Guillard, Guida and especially Nate Diaz...but if thats all he can do against Florian, then I dread to think what a Sherk, Griffin, Maynard etc will do to him.

 

- One thing that really stuck out for me...how on earth were Uno and Tibau in the same weightclass? Tibau's arms were almost the size of Uno's waist! I'm not one of these people who calls for guys to drop a weightclass every time they lose, but some of these fighters used to training and fighting in Japan all there lives need to seriously think about fighting at their natural weight (againt guys potentially 20lbs heavier) or making a small cut/losing weight.

 

I'd put Pearson up against Tyson Griffin next, and Gleison Tibau against Jim Miller. And then those two winners can fight for title contention. It almost seems inevitable that Kenny Florian and Gray Maynard are going to meet for a vacant Lightweight title whenever BJ beats Edgar and moves up, so it would be nice to have a couple of solid contenders waiting for when that happens.

 

Gomi definitely proved that he still has some sick power in his hands. He hurt Florian fairly well with the few shots he did land flush, one putting Florian on rubbery legs, albeit very short. Gomi needs to stay away from Tito Ortiz when he's state side, and get with a serious camp. The Japanese camps are great... for Japan... But we're almost two entirely different sports. The weight classes are a huge disadvantage for the Japanese fighters as they don't do as much weight cutting. They're natural 155ers where as they might be facing a guy that walks around at 180. Crazy.

 

And I agree with you... when UFC signed Gomi my first thought was "Man, his first fight needs to be against Nate Diaz."

 

Also, I'd just like to say that Keith Florian has to be the biggest douchebag in the history of this sport. It's one thing to coach your fighter, but to scream non-stop to the point that all the viewer can think about is wanting to drive a hammer squarely into his forehead... it's an issue. Not to mention when Kenny was doing his post fight interview Keith was just kinda pacing in he background, getting some camera time and hamming it up... And almost acting like he was the one that won the fight. Brother living through brother.

 

All of these people are comparing Florian and St. Pierre on Shertard.com, which cracks me up. Gomi was huffing and puffing in the second round like a 2-pack-a-day smoker running a marathon. Why is it so surprising that he was prone to a takedown. By that point he was just in survival mode, hoping to land a lucky "I Win" haymaker.

 

And I'm a huge Joe Rogan fan, but what is his obsession with comparing Kenny Florian's jabs as laser beams... It's not like Gomi was moving his head or anything. Gomi was just moving forward, making no real attempt to defend the jab and just lobbing sloppy ass punches. Florian is always going to be a threat in the division, but he's never going to hold a title. I just don't see him beating Gray Maynard if and when that fight comes up. Gray is basically an evolved Sean Sherk at this point, and he's only getting better.

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I like Pearson too but he's more than one or two fights from a title shot. He's young; give him Sam Stout. If he can win that, then give him a fight with Tibau, Guida, or Sherk. If he wins in that step up in competition I think then he'd be getting close to a title eliminator. But thus far his UFC path has mirrored Danzig's, and that went off the rails badly.
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<blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="brashleyholland" data-cite="brashleyholland" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="26660" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>I think everybody in the world picked Quarry for that one. Definitely an upset. Quarry looked stiff as anything.</div></blockquote><p> </p><p> Wrong. I picked Rivera by TKO in the 2nd... and I was correct. Why would I pick someone with borderline atrocious stand-up against someone else who is very proficient in that field? Because he has a little bit of power? What Rivera said pre-fight is exactly why it's not an upset (the quote about hitting him as much as Creduer).</p><p> </p><p> My only thought to the card was High/Brenneman fight. I scored it 29-28 for Jason, but figured they'd score it for Charlie. Taking nothing away from Charlie, but it came down to the third round and while he had a couple takedowns... he did nothing with the position, no sub attempts, and very little if any strikes landed. High on the other hand had two deep guillotines. It's one thing I think the "Unified" rules of judging need to take from Japan. Reward the fighter who is trying to actually finish the fight. Yes, he got taken down but when NOTHING is done with it and the guy on the bottom nearly finishes with guillotines on two separate occassions... I give the round to him for doing something.</p>
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<blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="ACCBiggz" data-cite="ACCBiggz" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="26660" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div>Wrong. I picked Rivera by TKO in the 2nd... and I was correct. Why would I pick someone with borderline atrocious stand-up against someone else who is very proficient in that field? Because he has a little bit of power? What Rivera said pre-fight is exactly why it's not an upset (the quote about hitting him as much as Creduer).<p> </p><p> My only thought to the card was High/Brenneman fight. I scored it 29-28 for Jason, but figured they'd score it for Charlie. Taking nothing away from Charlie, but it came down to the third round and while he had a couple takedowns... he did nothing with the position, no sub attempts, and very little if any strikes landed. High on the other hand had two deep guillotines. It's one thing I think the "Unified" rules of judging need to take from Japan. Reward the fighter who is trying to actually finish the fight. Yes, he got taken down but when NOTHING is done with it and the guy on the bottom nearly finishes with guillotines on two separate occassions... I give the round to him for doing something.</p></div></blockquote><p> </p><p> Yep, the truth of the matter is the American rule set is made for lazy people with low attention span. Prize fighting judging has gotten considerably bad over the years, especially considering the boom of MMA. A lot of states are still throwing MMA these boxing judges who barely know how to critique their own sport, let alone one with about 1,000 different elements to it in comparison.</p><p> </p><p> I like your assessment of Rivera. I think he got some unnecessary crap whenever he dropped a few fights, notably to Leben. Rivera's stand up isn't anywhere near the top of the division, but he's always going to make punch-wingers look terrible... Case in point; Mr. Quarry.</p>
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<p>Bellator season 2 starts in about a week. You should care because the Bellator featherweight and welterweight tournaments are filled with outrageously good prospects. The light and middleweight brackets aren't nearly the same quality but if it all pans out you could get to see Huerta as the new Bellator LW champ and that'd be funny for a lot of reasons, the biggest being reading the Sherdog forums when they make excuses about Alvarez losing to a guy not in their top 10.</p><p> </p><p>

So yeah. Watch it.</p>

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<p>Not sure Huerta beats Alvarez, if that match arises. I think Alvarez is really going to start breaking away from the pack soon. If you notice he's getting bigger with each fight, and he's beginning to take more risks. It's all going to come together and when it does, he's going to be a monster. I think his wars with Joachim and Kawajiri in DREAM have made him tough as nails, and a fight with Huerta would probably be a much more hardcore version of Huerta/Garcia. Just depends on which Huerta decides to show up.</p><p> </p><p>

I'll probably watch a few fights here and there, and pick up most of the highlights on HDnet.</p><p> </p><p>

Bellator and Strikeforce are always worth watching... It makes it all the more exciting when these fighters show up in the UFC, and you actually know who they are. </p><p> </p><p>

I've been shying away from the Japanese MMA as of late though, I still enjoy the old PRIDE stuff... But unless Manhoef or Kawajiri is fighting, it really seems kind of pointless to me... Plus the Super Hulk stuff was kind of "WTF?"</p>

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<p>Minowaman leglocking guys four times his size will never get old! e: also losing to everyone who's even close to his size not named Sokoudjou</p><p> </p><p>

K-1 WGP Yokohama is starting now by the way. There's some cool fights on there so watch it.</p><p> </p><p>

e: Intermission! Hasn't been terribly exciting thus far, two bog standard K-1 heavyweights slugged it out ineffectively, Jaideep still can't use his size, the broken corpse of JLB narrowly defeated a cruiserweight and the Overeem fight involved a first round knockout and a knee. I'll let you guess how it happened. Hint:<a href="http://i43.tinypic.com/avokdv.gif" rel="external nofollow">[click]</a></p><p> </p><p>

On the plus side the cool fights are coming up and if Ignashow's back to his old form we might see him knocking out Hari which would be pretty rad.</p>

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<blockquote data-ipsquote="" class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote-username="Daffanka" data-cite="Daffanka" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="26660" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic"><div><p> </p><p> On the plus side the cool fights are coming up and if Ignashow's <strong><em>not doused in enough alcohol that he risks combusting should he walk past someone with a lit cigar</em></strong> we might see him knocking out Hari which would be pretty rad.</p></div></blockquote><p> </p><p> Fixed <img alt=":D" data-src="//content.invisioncic.com/g322608/emoticons/biggrin.png.929299b4c121f473b0026f3d6e74d189.png" src="<___base_url___>/applications/core/interface/js/spacer.png" /></p>
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Aww... :(

 

Hari's an excellent kickboxer but Iganshov looked terrified to get anything going offensively. I don't think he'll be hanging at the top.

 

Anyway I'm going to post this again so people don't forget what the important part of this WGP was http://i43.tinypic.com/avokdv.gif

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