Official NFL Discussion Thread

[GatorBait19]

First, Rex Ryan is an intelligent football coach. Everyone with two brain cells knows the Jets are going to run a lot. So when facing an 8 in the box situation, Sanchez will have the ability to audible to a play action play.

 

You seem to be operating under a faulty assumption that a defense has to be 'bad' for a team to throw the ball a lot. Someone tell the Colts that.

 

Good coaches take advantage of situations and matchups (ask Bill Belichick). Rex Ryan is a good coach. Thus, 7 and 8 men in the box will lead to lots of skinny posts and outs and fades being switched to. He wants to add more balance to his offense, or else he never would've gotten Holmes in the first place.

 

not with the broke down Lexus in the shop..... lmao sorry I had to, im still a believer Jones will do better this year than LT and at a cheaper price

[Remianen]

not with the broke down Lexus in the shop..... lmao sorry I had to, im still a believer Jones will do better this year than LT and at a cheaper price

 

That wouldn't surprise me. Thomas Jones is going to be splitting carries with an unproven young back for an absolutely abysmal team. LT is going to be a third down/goal line back for a team that played in the conference championship game. Here's where your 'cheaper price' thing fails. Jones refused to take a pay cut, which led to his release. He's not making $5.8 million with the Chiefs (like he would have made with the Jets). He's only scheduled to make 3. So the "cheaper price" thing fails because he wouldn't have accepted $3 million from the Jets and only accepted that from the Chiefs because it was the best he could get on the open market. LT signed a two year, $5.1 million dollar deal that maxes at $5.6 million. That's $2.8 million a season average, at best. Do you honestly think Thomas Jones would've taken that? For a team that didn't want to have to deal with another possible Curtis Martin situation, it made perfect sense to go with the younger legs and back him up with a proven veteran. Plus, LT's going to have to share carries with both Shonn AND the returning Leon Washington.

 

Seriously, I know you have a mancrush on Thomas Jones but that doesn't mean the Jets are going to crash and burn without him. The Jets upgraded their backfield while saving money at the same time. You see, the problem with workhorse backs like Jones (and Martin before him) is that stupid teams rely on them so when they do break down, the team is left with no alternatives but to overpay for a replacement. Smarter teams have several high quality backs who can all get the job done should the need arise.

[GatorBait19]

Thomas Jones: 2 years, 5 million

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4980364

 

LT: 2 years, 5.1 million, maybe up to 5.6

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4994748

 

So Jones is cheaper, after looking at everthing I agree it was smart to cut him, for the money, but I read on ESPN after he signed that he took that same deal to the Jets and they refused

 

And it's not a man crush, it's the fact that LT is coming off his worst year, while Jones just hit his best year, he knows the system and if you are worried about him tiring out......... then why the **** would you sign LT?

 

Jones has 600 less carries, and is just .3 yards under what LT avg. for his career per rush.

 

And Jamaal Charles isn't unproven, he had a monster season last year, Greene is the unproven one if anything

 

So now you can say it's an upgrade at the position, but is it an upgrade in production?

 

But we will have to wait until after this season is over, it's the only way we will figure out

[Remianen]

Brandon Marshall is a Dolphin, for a pair of 2nd rounders.

 

Not bad. Not ideal, but not bad.

 

Source: NFL Network (on the ticker) and now, the front page of NFL.com

 

While you're right that we'll have to wait and see, I don't understand how the boobirds could come out so quickly. Let's look at what happened in San Diego that contributed to and precipitated LT's drop in production.

 

The team moved fully to Norv Turner's preferred system (which, obviously, is pass oriented) with the emergence of Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson. They also started giving Darren Sproles more carries to justify his much higher pay grade. Several times during the season, the Chargers were playing from behind (which means MORE emphasis on the pass to a Norv Turner). Oh and did I mention the O-line was beat up? Meanwhile, at the same time, Thomas Jones was playing for the first time with a defense oriented coach looking to protect his prized defense along with a rookie starting quarterback. What's that mean? Ball control, all day. Pair that with the nastiest offensive line in the league, and you have a lot more rushing attempts to go around. Thus, Jones benefited from all of that, with roughly the same number of carries but far more exploitable holes with which to work.

 

I think people predicting the demise of LT will find themselves in a situation similar to those people who predicted the demise of Mark Twain.

[Trashbear]

Brandon Marshall is a Dolphin, for a pair of 2nd rounders.

 

Not bad. Not ideal, but not bad.

 

Source: NFL Network (on the ticker) and now, the front page of NFL.com

 

While you're right that we'll have to wait and see, I don't understand how the boobirds could come out so quickly. Let's look at what happened in San Diego that contributed to and precipitated LT's drop in production.

 

The team moved fully to Norv Turner's preferred system (which, obviously, is pass oriented) with the emergence of Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson. They also started giving Darren Sproles more carries to justify his much higher pay grade. Several times during the season, the Chargers were playing from behind (which means MORE emphasis on the pass to a Norv Turner). Oh and did I mention the O-line was beat up? Meanwhile, at the same time, Thomas Jones was playing for the first time with a defense oriented coach looking to protect his prized defense along with a rookie starting quarterback. What's that mean? Ball control, all day. Pair that with the nastiest offensive line in the league, and you have a lot more rushing attempts to go around. Thus, Jones benefited from all of that, with roughly the same number of carries but far more exploitable holes with which to work.

 

I think people predicting the demise of LT will find themselves in a situation similar to those people who predicted the demise of Mark Twain.

 

Suddenly the East is looking very, very competitive. It may be a three team race...and the Bills, with their good special teams, could surprise some people depending on how they do in the draft. They need a QB and probably a strong left tackle to protect him, but they could do it.

 

I think the sun is setting on the Patriots...which pains me greatly. Hey, I'm no bandwagon fan, I started watching in the '92 season when they were...what 2-14? Then came Parcells and Bledsoe...so when they were going to five Superbowls in a span of about ten years and six AFC title games, I felt like I'd suffered enough to justify it.

 

But damn man, the Jets are making us New England fans nervous as hell. Whatever LT has left in the tank, Ryan will get all of it out him, and maybe even more.

[CQI13]

I still think the division is New England's...For as much as people want to say that the Jets were 1 game away from the Super Bowl, they were what, a .500 team? They're closer to that than they are an elite team. And the Dolphins should be OK, but we'll have to see what the schedule is like.

[The Final Countdown]

Marshall for a pair of 2nd-rounders, eh? While I would have liked to see them pry a 1st rounder from someone, I suppose this'll do.

[CQI13]

2nd this year, up to a second next year. Since he's supposed to be getting a lucrative deal from the Dolphins upon passing the physical, we'll assume they'll be getting that 2nd rounder next year too.

[darthsiddus2]

Marshall signed a 4yr 47 Mil contact extension with the Phins.

[Remianen]

2nd this year, up to a second next year.

 

There's no 'up to'. The picks aren't conditional. It's flat out, #43 this year, and their 2nd rounder next year.

 

It's a good deal for both sides. For some reason, people seem reluctant to part with 1st rounders, probably due to the absence of a cap.

[Imarevenant]

There's no 'up to'. The picks aren't conditional. It's flat out, #43 this year, and their 2nd rounder next year.

 

It's a good deal for both sides. For some reason, people seem reluctant to part with 1st rounders, probably due to the absence of a cap.

 

This is also a very good and deep draft, so while 1st rounders would be ideal, there is good value in 2nd round players as well; which may be why teams are more open to taking non 1st round picks.

 

 

Still, seeing Marshall and Boldin traded for 2nd and 3rd rounders makes me appreciate the deal Mayhew got out of Jerry Jones for Roy Williams that much more.

[Slagaholic]

First, Rex Ryan is an intelligent football coach. Everyone with two brain cells knows the Jets are going to run a lot. So when facing an 8 in the box situation, Sanchez will have the ability to audible to a play action play.

 

You seem to be operating under a faulty assumption that a defense has to be 'bad' for a team to throw the ball a lot. Someone tell the Colts that.

 

Good coaches take advantage of situations and matchups (ask Bill Belichick). Rex Ryan is a good coach. Thus, 7 and 8 men in the box will lead to lots of skinny posts and outs and fades being switched to. He wants to add more balance to his offense, or else he never would've gotten Holmes in the first place.

 

I agree. I never disagreed with your premise, just disagreed with the numbers you said Holmes would put up.

 

88 Catches in 12 Games? C'mon!

[Remianen]

I agree. I never disagreed with your premise, just disagreed with the numbers you said Holmes would put up.

 

88 Catches in 12 Games? C'mon!

 

Second year QB. Teams keying on the run, thus making it even more difficult to double Holmes, Edwards, or Dustin Keller. All it would take is one or two big games to keep an 8 catch per game average and you do remember that they play the Bills....TWICE.

 

Those numbers weren't exact. Less catches but a higher average could produce the yardage and the TDs. Doesn't take 16 games to run up 10+ TDs, after all. And I don't think I said that's what he would put up. My numbers were in response to Gatorbait asking what I would consider a 'breakout' year for him. I just took last year's numbers and added 6-10%. I also posted that before he was suspended, I think. But I don't see why he can't put up numbers at least rivaling last season's. Sanchez, with a year in the system, is bound to be a lot better, so Brian will loosen the reins a bit and let him work.

[Slagaholic]

I think you're looking at this a bit backwards. The Jets are built for the run. Having Holmes helps the run as much as the run helps Holmes. You say that the Jets will throw the ball more since teams will be keying on the run, and I agree. However they will still be a run-first offense, and even if Holmes gets off to a great start, teams will start to double him on passing downs. They're going to pass more but I just don't see Holmes having as huge a year as you think he's going to. Holmes is going into an offense that throws the ball less. No matter how you look at it, the Steelers threw the ball more often last year than the Jets will. Not to mention they had a far superior quarterback. Big Ben threw the ball 506 times last year. The Jets will not throw the ball that often, unless they're consistently coming from behind.

 

I think he'll help the offense, but you are vastly overstating the impact he will have on the offense. 8 catches per game over a 16 game season extrapolates to 128 catches, which would be #2 all time for a single season.

[GatorBait19]

Second year QB. Teams keying on the run, thus making it even more difficult to double Holmes, Edwards, or Dustin Keller. All it would take is one or two big games to keep an 8 catch per game average and you do remember that they play the Bills....TWICE.

 

Those numbers weren't exact. Less catches but a higher average could produce the yardage and the TDs. Doesn't take 16 games to run up 10+ TDs, after all. And I don't think I said that's what he would put up. My numbers were in response to Gatorbait asking what I would consider a 'breakout' year for him. I just took last year's numbers and added 6-10%. I also posted that before he was suspended, I think. But I don't see why he can't put up numbers at least rivaling last season's. Sanchez, with a year in the system, is bound to be a lot better, so Brian will loosen the reins a bit and let him work.

 

Bills have a good secondary though

[Remianen]

I think he'll help the offense, but you are vastly overstating the impact he will have on the offense. 8 catches per game over a 16 game season extrapolates to 128 catches, which would be #2 all time for a single season.

 

I say once again, read what I wrote in the context it was written. I did not say he was going to have that season. I said he would be primed to have a breakout year, given the circumstances. Again, you're under the mistaken assumption that you have to throw the ball a whole lot for receivers to put up big numbers. That...is false, and has been proven false, historically and recently. Lemme give you an example.

 

In 2007, Jay Cutler completed 297 of 467 attempts. How many catches did Brandon Marshall have? Would you say Marshall was the only player catching the ball? Would you say the Broncos weren't fully committed to the run?

 

You're also ignoring the fact that the Jets had MUCH lower quality receivers last year so of course you go with your strength (running the football). With above average talent at receiver now, throwing the ball more is a given. You don't draft Mark Sanchez to hand the ball off. It's a chicken & egg situation. No smart coach is going to throw the ball tons with a rookie signal caller and poor receivers (Dustin excluded). It's career suicide, especially when you have the option to run lots. Look at the Chargers. For his first couple years, Rivers handed the ball off A LOT. But once he matured and they got him some talent outside the numbers (to go along with Antonio), they threw the ball A LOT more than they had previously, did they not?

 

Again, read what I wrote. I didn't say he was going to put up those numbers. I said he COULD, for the reasons I've explained. Personally, I think it's likely that this city eats him alive because he seems weak minded and New York isn't the city you want to play in if that's the case. But if it doesn't, he's standing in the midst of what could be a perfect storm. If you think the Jets are going to grind the ball like they did last season, well, in eight months I'll get to point out that it didn't happen. Rex is a defensive coach. Defensive coaches protect their defenses. The best way to do that as a head coach is to have the offense spend inordinate amounts of time on the field. However, he's also a smart coach and smart coaches exploit weaknesses in their opponents. Sanchez will get 100-150 more attempts this year, which could very well lead to a lot of catches for one of the three primary Jets receivers.

 

Bills have a good secondary though

 

With no pass rush and weak linebackers, no secondary can be good. You could put Deion Sanders on one side and Lester Hayes or Mike Haynes (in their prime) on the other with Lott & Reed at safety and the secondary would still get decimated. You can't expect even the best DBs to cover indefinitely (and the linebackers need to cover too).

[Slagaholic]

We'll see this season.

[Trashbear]

I say once again, read what I wrote in the context it was written. I did not say he was going to have that season. I said he would be primed to have a breakout year, given the circumstances. Again, you're under the mistaken assumption that you have to throw the ball a whole lot for receivers to put up big numbers. That...is false, and has been proven false, historically and recently. Lemme give you an example.

 

In 2007, Jay Cutler completed 297 of 467 attempts. How many catches did Brandon Marshall have? Would you say Marshall was the only player catching the ball? Would you say the Broncos weren't fully committed to the run?

 

You're also ignoring the fact that the Jets had MUCH lower quality receivers last year so of course you go with your strength (running the football). With above average talent at receiver now, throwing the ball more is a given. You don't draft Mark Sanchez to hand the ball off. It's a chicken & egg situation. No smart coach is going to throw the ball tons with a rookie signal caller and poor receivers (Dustin excluded). It's career suicide, especially when you have the option to run lots. Look at the Chargers. For his first couple years, Rivers handed the ball off A LOT. But once he matured and they got him some talent outside the numbers (to go along with Antonio), they threw the ball A LOT more than they had previously, did they not?

 

Again, read what I wrote. I didn't say he was going to put up those numbers. I said he COULD, for the reasons I've explained. Personally, I think it's likely that this city eats him alive because he seems weak minded and New York isn't the city you want to play in if that's the case. But if it doesn't, he's standing in the midst of what could be a perfect storm. If you think the Jets are going to grind the ball like they did last season, well, in eight months I'll get to point out that it didn't happen. Rex is a defensive coach. Defensive coaches protect their defenses. The best way to do that as a head coach is to have the offense spend inordinate amounts of time on the field. However, he's also a smart coach and smart coaches exploit weaknesses in their opponents. Sanchez will get 100-150 more attempts this year, which could very well lead to a lot of catches for one of the three primary Jets receivers.

 

 

 

With no pass rush and weak linebackers, no secondary can be good. You could put Deion Sanders on one side and Lester Hayes or Mike Haynes (in their prime) on the other with Lott & Reed at safety and the secondary would still get decimated. You can't expect even the best DBs to cover indefinitely (and the linebackers need to cover too).

 

A very suspect LB corps really hurt the Patriots defense over the last two seasons. Absolutely no coverage in the middle of the field, not much of a pass rush either. Of course, that also falls on your DEs. You get a wide receiver out in space with a time to get free, a great corner suddenly looks completely average.

 

Of course...an outright ****ty set of DBs didn't do them many favors. How their defense was ranked as well as it was is very misleading.

 

The Jets got some amazing play from their rookie DB, Revis, and at times Sanchez showed flashes of the player he could someday become. Those two need to avoid the so-called "sophomore slump" and hope that with a whole season of film on them that no one detects an exploitable flaw. Those two, with the off-season acquisitions added to the mix (not to mention the confidence inspired by their deep playoff run despite not winning the division) makes for a very potent team. Like I said, I'm a Pats fan, but to be truly objective...I would not be surprised come January if the it's the Jets taking the division and the Pats pushing for a wild card spot. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if the roles were reversed.

 

Schedule comes out Tuesday...

[Remianen]

A very suspect LB corps really hurt the Patriots defense over the last two seasons. Absolutely no coverage in the middle of the field, not much of a pass rush either. Of course, that also falls on your DEs. You get a wide receiver out in space with a time to get free, a great corner suddenly looks completely average.

 

Exactly my point. The Bills had better hope Pozluzny comes back at full strength AND they find some impact players in the draft. "Good" secondary isn't enough.

 

Of course...an outright ****ty set of DBs didn't do them many favors. How their defense was ranked as well as it was is very misleading.

 

Because Belichick is a situational maven. The man knows how to put players in situations where their strengths shine and their weaknesses are masked. Problem is, it's extremely difficult to do that with corners and even harder to do it with safeties (who need corners and linebackers to cover for them). People may fault him for a few decisions he makes that don't pan out (most coaches are pus...wusses so going for it on 4th down isn't even a consideration for many of them), but the man is an excellent strategist.

 

The Jets got some amazing play from their rookie DB, Revis, and at times Sanchez showed flashes of the player he could someday become. Those two need to avoid the so-called "sophomore slump" and hope that with a whole season of film on them that no one detects an exploitable flaw. Those two, with the off-season acquisitions added to the mix (not to mention the confidence inspired by their deep playoff run despite not winning the division) makes for a very potent team. Like I said, I'm a Pats fan, but to be truly objective...I would not be surprised come January if the it's the Jets taking the division and the Pats pushing for a wild card spot. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if the roles were reversed.

 

Psst, Revis wasn't a rookie. Last year was his third season. They had Lito playing opposite Revis Island. The key for the Jets last year was having people onhand who knew Rex's system (Bart Scott, Jim Leonhard, etc). That helped everyone (except Kerry Rhodes) get on the same page and execute that much better.

 

I think the Pats will be fine. That team scouts so well, they find diamonds in the rough regularly (who's under center?). I think once they add Jason Taylor (and they will add Jason Taylor. It's the only place that really wants him), all they'll need are maybe one end, a #2 receiver (Edelman will shine this year in the slot. Watch), and a few role players. They're likely to find someone who breaks out and a few developmental guys along the o-line (they do every year) so the pressing needs are relatively few.

 

And again this year, you'll find some team that'll accidentally come across a dynamic returner, even though only one team (that I know of) actually scouts for that type of player (guess which one? Yep, the Bears). Everyone else seems to just pigeonhole people into the role if they don't fit at their natural position.

[Trashbear]

 

Psst, Revis wasn't a rookie. Last year was his third season. They had Lito playing opposite Revis Island. The key for the Jets last year was having people onhand who knew Rex's system (Bart Scott, Jim Leonhard, etc). That helped everyone (except Kerry Rhodes) get on the same page and execute that much better.

 

I think the Pats will be fine. That team scouts so well, they find diamonds in the rough regularly (who's under center?). I think once they add Jason Taylor (and they will add Jason Taylor. It's the only place that really wants him), all they'll need are maybe one end, a #2 receiver (Edelman will shine this year in the slot. Watch), and a few role players. They're likely to find someone who breaks out and a few developmental guys along the o-line (they do every year) so the pressing needs are relatively few.

 

I honestly never even considered that Revis wasn't a rookie...even though the Jets are divisional opponents, I never remember hearing his name called. He just seemed to come out of nowhere. Chalk that one up to ignorance on my part. So scratch that remark...

 

But I would disagree that the Pats only have a few pressing needs...left tackle is beginning to look like a trouble spot, and for a right handed QB the LT position is one of the top five or six most important spots on a team. They need to get a long-term answer at DE, a young inside LB, a good running back, a good corner, a TE (Alge Crumpler is not the answer), and they should consider taking a tall, deep-threat receiver since Moss is starting to fade a bit, and he's gone after this season anyway. I feel okay about the safeties and the quarterback, and I agree that Edelman is going to become a "slot machine" and take the sting out of the Welker situation...but everything else, to me, is suspect.

 

Certainly, Belichick is a master at putting guys in the right position to succeed, and there's no situation that confronts him that he won't be prepared for. But I wonder just how many "diamonds" are out in that rough? It's a question that's essentially impossible to answer. My personal feeling is that their time in the sun is coming to an end. As a fan, I hope that's not the case. But as an unbiased fan of the sport of football as a whole, that's my opinion.

 

EDIT: The lead "headline", if you can call it that, on the Sports Illustrated Truth & Rumors section is "Jets Pushing Hard To Sign Taylor."

[CQI13]

And NBC Sports is saying that Taylor "leaning heavily" towards Jets.

 

In other news, (un)surprisingly, the Steelers say they are open to trades on Big Ben.

[Stennick]

I say once again, read what I wrote in the context it was written. I did not say he was going to have that season. I said he would be primed to have a breakout year, given the circumstances.

 

I think what he's saying is that someone asked you what a breakout year would be. You then put up those numbers as your example of a break out year. When someone reminded you he only had 12 games with a running minded football team to do it with you then said that that was an example. However when asked for an example of a break out year those are the numbers you gave. Saying that to you that would be a breakout year. Thats double talk saying "a break out year to me is this" and then when someone says how crazy those numbers are you say "well I said a breakout year that was just an example" an example of a breakout year.

 

You say "he'll have a break out year" then when asked what a breakout year is you put those numbers up then when someone said how highly unlikely it is he'll come close to those numbers you then turned around and said "that was an example". So why use it as an example if you don't believe in those numbers?

 

Honestly I don't see Rex throwing the ball up that many times. Everyone is overhyping this team. They barely made it into the playoffs and then got hot. The Phins just got better, New England is always there. Rex is all show to me, one minute he's got swag, the next minute he's crying because his team can't win. Everyone is putting them in the playoffs when they got a tough tough AFC to get through not to mention a tough East to get through.

 

You're saying he'll have a breakout year but then even you're saying he won't have the numbers you listed for consideration of a break out year.

[Trashbear]

2010 Schedules have been released.

 

AFC East teams will be playing NFC North teams. I believe the Jets and Patriots each have 9 games against 2009 playoff teams. I can't remember every team that made it last year, and I lack the ambition to look up that information.

[Remianen]

You're saying he'll have a breakout year but then even you're saying he won't have the numbers you listed for consideration of a break out year.

 

All I've said is read what I wrote:

 

Holmes for a 5th round pick is going to come back to haunt the Steelers. They stacked motivation on top of motivation (walk year + insulting opinion of his value = a dude who might have a breakout year). It was a huge boon for the Jets though. There is little chance they'd land as valuable a player from the draft at that position.

 

Lemme highlight the part that I've been trying to reiterate.

 

Holmes for a 5th round pick is going to come back to haunt the Steelers. They stacked motivation on top of motivation (walk year + insulting opinion of his value = a dude who might have a breakout year). It was a huge boon for the Jets though. There is little chance they'd land as valuable a player from the draft at that position.

 

At no time did I say or imply that he would have a breakout year. I said he'd be primed to have one due to the motivation of being "sold out" and his contract situation. When asked what I thought would be a 'breakout year', I gave stats that were slightly above last year's. Even in a shortened season (for him), it's still possible for him to reach those numbers if he's the team's primary option in the passing game (and he would be, given the team's current makeup) and given the team's divisional schedule. A team's ability (or lack thereof) factors in huge with regard to strategy. While running the ball and eating up the clock makes sense if you're facing the Colts, the same motivation does not exist when you're playing the Bills. This would be especially true if the Bills stack the box (which people tend to do against a run oriented team). I hear people saying (with conviction, even) that the Jets aren't going to throw the ball more or that the status quo as established last year will reign in a new season. I disagree. This league isn't full of slow learners. The Jets established themselves as probably the best running team in the league last year. This year, people will scheme to take away that advantage. So the offense will move toward balance, which means throwing the ball a lot more than they did last year (which really isn't saying a whole lot). That's where my idea came from.

[CQI13]

Big Ben suspended 4-6 games.

 

Awesome.

 

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/thehuddle/post/2010/04/myron-rolle-on-nfl-suspension-for-ben-roethlisberger-its-awesome/1