UFC vs WWE on PPV

[brashleyholland]

Thought this might stir up some debate...

 

From Zach Arnold's FightOpinion:

 

Yesterday, news broke that the number of worldwide PPV buys for this year’s Wrestlemania was 885,000. For WWE, that is a bad sign and an estimated 20% behind what people were expecting. WWE has PPV clearance worldwide in many more markets than UFC does, as UFC is just building up their international business right now with a lot of over-the-air or cable television deals.

 

Take note of what the trends are with weekends where a UFC PPV is on a Saturday and a WWE PPV is on the next day on a Sunday. Last November, UFC ran on 11/21 with Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz. The PPV didn’t draw great numbers for UFC, but it did enough damage to WWE’s Survivor Series PPV buy rate. Survivor Series was traditional one of WWE’s “original four” big PPVs. It has now been eliminated. On March 27th, UFC ran their Newark, NJ PPV with Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy. St. Pierre is the company’s second biggest PPV attraction and dominates the Canadian marketplace. The estimated PPV buy rate for UFC 111 in Newark was a little over 700,000 PPV buys. The next day, Wrestlemania took place and as you will see below in quotes from both Dave Meltzer and Bryan Alvarez, WWE drew below expectations both domestically and worldwide with their PPV buy rate.

 

Quotes from Dave Meltzer:

“In the last six months on PPV. It’s Wrestlemania and Survivor Series and they both came, the guy (on the WWE conference call) goes, the day after ‘a competing event,’ he didn’t use the words UFC. I think maybe he was afraid the words were banned or something, someone was in his headset about to scare him, so he just said “a competing event” and then Vince (McMahon) just was, ‘Absolutely not, the competing event draws from the boxing fans, they do not draw from the entertain fans, we draw from the entertain fans,’ it was like a complete denial of something that was so obvious, the minute I saw that buy rate it was like, ‘Holy s***!” you know, UFC did a lot more of a number, I mean I misread this one bad, you know, and it’s funny because the trending patterns were absolutely right, the trending patterns predicted 515,000 North Americans buys and I was just like, ‘There’s no f****** way’, you know, this is Wrestlemania, this was you know Michaels and Undeteraker was so well-promoted, but you know the thing is that people are going to have there, you know Vince also did blame it on more people, he used the ‘more people getting together and there were just as many viewers as their was in the past’ but you know that’s bull****.

 

The thing is people are going to get together, you know buddies are going to get together, and if it’s a weekend with two shows, the buddies are going to get together, they’re not getting together on Saturday night and Sunday night, they’re going to pick and choose and on this one they picked “the other show” and I thought this would be the one show a year, I mean because normally if you’re going to do that, they’re going to pick the UFC.”

 

and:

 

“This one was against a big UFC and when the buddies got to choose like which night they’re going out or are we going to go out and hang out and eat pizza and watch UFC or we going to hang out and watch Wrestlemania, where we missed out was more chose UFC than Wrestlemania. So, that’s the story.”

 

Thoughts?

[brashleyholland]

Here's a couple of comments left on the article...

 

The big thing is that I don’t think Pro Wrestling is ever going to recover. I think it’s going to die a slow and painful death. MMA is real life pro wrestling. It is what pro wrestling should have been all along. When I was 10, I was going to Pro Wrestling matches. Now I see 10 year olds at a Bellator show.

 

One major gimmick in Pro Wrestling is the tough guy one. That gimmick is over. You can’t talk up a guy being tough when you have a legit sports league like the UFC that actually showcases those guys.

 

...

 

Wrestling has always been very cyclical so I think this has something to do with the low number. Also, I think the product for the last couple years has been very bad and this number reflects that also.

 

Who knows? Maybe Vince will get a wake up call and go back to Attitude era angles and booking instead of an irish midget (who’s over more than 90% of the talent), clean cut spinny belt wearing no faces, old decrepit talent and a son in law whose nepotism is poisonous. I don’t think the investors would allow that though.

 

...

 

I don’t think it’s a cyclical thing with the WWE this time around. The last time they had a down time it was after WrestleMania 6 and then things didn’t pick up again until WrestleMania 14. It was a good 8 year down period.

 

It’s been 9 years since WCW went out of business and the entire time they have gone downhill since then. Plus, during the 90’s there was so many untapped stars waiting to come out. Hogan still had a 2nd chance in WCW this time around. There were a lot of great wrestlers who were finally getting exposure in WCW and the WWF.

 

There is no place right now to get a 2nd run of great “Cruiserweights” from. No new Mysterio’s, Guerrero’s, or Malenko’s. The interntional scene is basically the WWE. No place for them to get the untapped resources like the next Steve Austin or The Rock. Not to mention both Austin and Rock won’t be making a 2nd run at it like Hogan and Savage did in WCW.

 

And that’s the major difference. At this point in the downhill cycle last time, they were already showing signs of life. Already had the talent ready to emerge. There is none of that this time. It’s been 9 years since WCW died and the industry has never looked this bad since before Hogan.

 

I don’t care if the WWE is still making money. Things are set up right now that is giving them basically no future.

 

...

People seem to get the impression that pro wrestling used to do giant PPV numbers at their peaks of popularity (80s with Hogan, 90s with Austin), but they really didn’t. Pro wrestling has very few blockbuster buyrates that compares to boxing and now UFC. There are only two WWE shows on the top 20 of all time list (Wrestlemania’s 17 and 23) but yet their television numbers always stay fairly solid. That’s because their core audience are kids and kids are not a good market for pay per view for some reason. Parents will buy the toys, they’ll buy the video games, they’ll take them to see a live show once a year. But they are not going to let them buy more than one pay per view a year in most cases. UFC, on the other hand, has the 18-35 demo that make their own money so can buy shows as they see fit, that’s the difference. And on the other hand, the UFC would never get the consistent ratings of Raw for Ultimate Fighter.

 

The main sticking point is how easy it was for the 18-35 year olds to walk away from pro wrestling and show no signs of coming back. It’s because of that massive stigma that comes from being an adult pro wrestling viewer of reasonable intelligence. You get nearly as negative of a reaction from people as admitting you’re into Furries or are a Susan Boyle groupie. And there’s nothing WWE can do about that, that’s why they refuse to admit they’re a problem. They’re helpless to the fact that the UFC is a million times cooler to be a fan of and the only people left who don’t care are kids. So they’ve just got to get used to the fact that they’re like training wheels for future UFC fans and expect a turnover of new viewers every 5 years or so. And they will keep the kids, as kids want cartoon character superheroes that MMA can’t provide.

 

...

 

I think Vince realizes the tide has shifted more than people give him credit for. He did go the kid friendly route in 2008 or so when it became clear UFC wasn’t going anywhere. He would never admit it, but the only reason to do that is because you know the war is lost with adults, so you might as well double up efforts on getting new 8 year olds to watch.

 

But there’s ways to stay making good money beyond pay per views. WWE will always sell more merchandise than UFC, their video library still rakes in the dough, and they’ve still got the UFC beat in the overseas market for now anyway. Plus they run two live shows a night and the UFC can’t do that with medical suspensions. And they will always have at least 4 million TV viewers no matter how crappy things get. WWE isn’t going anywhere just because they don’t sell as many PPVs.

 

...

 

Considering the rumors that Vince played a part in the UFC getting banned on German television, I think it is pretty clear he has a good grasp of what a threat MMA is to his business. He just won’t admit it publicly.

[Mr T Jobs To Me]

This has been pretty obvious to me for a while too. I probably wouldn't buy any WWE PPV that they could put on right now, it would take the absolute perfect storm of matches. But my friend and I have ordered the last few UFC PPV's and had a bunch of people over to watch them.

[brashleyholland]

One thing that I think WWE has over the UFC (well, the wrestling business has over the fight game really) is that if they can strike gold with a handfull of performers/storylines, they can go on a hot streak that revives their whole industry. It can last for years at a time and they can ride the momentum for years after that. Cases in point - Hulkamania in the 80's and Attitude in the 90's.

 

With the UFC, yes you have 'hot' performers like your Ortiz's (late 90's-early 2000's), Liddell and Couture (2003-2007), Lesnar (present)...but any of those guy's momentum can be irreparably damaged by just a couple of losses. The UFC can't make stars (Anderson Silva, best fighter in the world, can't sell PPV's) or guarentee entertaining bouts...there is a lot they can do to help the above along, but at the same time so much is left to chance.

[moon_lit_tears]

I use to watch wrestling. I have grown tired of the rediculus story lines and the sheer stupidity of the performers.

 

It's fake I get it, but to make it so fake that it's obvious to a toddler drinking out of a sippy cup.

[Mr T Jobs To Me]

One thing that I think WWE has over the UFC (well, the wrestling business has over the fight game really) is that if they can strike gold with a handfull of performers/storylines, they can go on a hot streak that revives their whole industry. It can last for years at a time and they can ride the momentum for years after that. Cases in point - Hulkamania in the 80's and Attitude in the 90's.

 

With the UFC, yes you have 'hot' performers like your Ortiz's (late 90's-early 2000's), Liddell and Couture (2003-2007), Lesnar (present)...but any of those guy's momentum can be irreparably damaged by just a couple of losses. The UFC can't make stars (Anderson Silva, best fighter in the world, can't sell PPV's) or guarentee entertaining bouts...there is a lot they can do to help the above along, but at the same time so much is left to chance.

 

A lot is left to chance, but with 5 weight classes they're virtually guaranteed to have one or two that are really hot at any given time. In 2009 they had a run of bad luck and there ended up being only 7 or 8 title matches the whole year but they still continued an upward trend, which shows that it's really not just the top guys who can draw any more.

 

I use to watch wrestling. I have grown tired of the rediculus story lines and the sheer stupidity of the performers.

 

It's fake I get it, but to make it so fake that it's obvious to a toddler drinking out of a sippy cup.

 

I still watch here and there, but don't go out of my way and haven't even considered ordering a PPV. The only time this year I even looked around for a sports bar to watch a PPV at was Elimination Chamber and none of the places around me carry them anymore. I'd probably consider myself a bigger wrestling fan than MMA fan to this day but the PG era just isn't for me.

[moon_lit_tears]

The stuff they did 10 years ago was great.

 

Now it's just kinda Blah!

 

Maybe I got older. Dunno.

[BHK1978]

The stuff they did 10 years ago was great.

 

Now it's just kinda Blah!

 

Maybe I got older. Dunno.

 

Funny I was a fan of the stuff from 15 to 20 years ago (NWA). I was never a fan of the Attitude Era and it think that was when my interest started to leave me.

 

I am now leaning more towards MMA now. In fact I really like the WEC (still a fan of Strikeforce and UFC).

[dvdWarrior]

Funny I was a fan of the stuff from 15 to 20 years ago (NWA). I was never a fan of the Attitude Era and it think that was when my interest started to leave me.

 

Same here.

 

The NWA was the wrestling I grew up with, and matches like the Flair - Steamboat masterpiece is what cemented my mental image of what pro wrestling was supposed to be. I never liked the Attitude Era all that much. Just seemed too out of control, too over the top for my taste. WCW was always my cup of tea - it was always easier to pretend their show was real - until Eric Bischoff and company started to run out of ideas and 'Vinne Ru' came on board - and I was always one of those "let's pretend it's real" fans.

 

Like I said once a long, long time ago, I watch wrestling with the same mindset I watch baseball games or boxing or MMA with, and I just haven't been able to adapt to this new 'male soap opera' product.

 

Anywho...

 

MMA's success isn't a threat to pro wrestling to me presonally... I have room in my heart for both. It's mainly today's wrestling product that's draining my interest.

 

Can't help but think UFC is a definite threat to WWE in the PPV market though. That buyrate for WrestleMania seemed pretty low to me.

 

 

Note: Can't really go by me on the modern wrestling scene. Near as I can tell, I have very Cornettian views on the industry.

[djthefunkchris]

I was going to chime in with the "fan of the 80's" stuff, but...

 

I said this before. I believe it has to do about your state of mind. Wrestling was huge to me when I was a teenager. Other's liked it earlier, other's later. However, it seems to follow a trend. Most people pick up wrestling between their teens and early 20's, and then they lose it (at least for a while).

 

It's never going to be the way "You remembered it" even when you rewatch it. Although you can remember how you felt the first time you watched it, for old times sake. However, to someone now, watching it wouldn't be half as good for them as it was for you (the first time). Meaning, even if someone new watched it now for the first time, they wouldn't be into it like you were then. The reason I think is because wrestling also uses current historical things going on, trends and such that keep it fresh. When nothing is really going on, it tends to get stale.

 

All that being said, there doesn't seem to be a new generation of wrestling fans building up. That's something different then I've seen over the years. I remember when was too young to care about it, and there being wrestling on TV with a bunch of older (to me at the time) folks watching (late 60's, early 70's). I remember it kind of fading away, and then skyrocketing in the 80's. I then recall it becoming big again a little over 10 years ago.

 

If that is any sign, then I don't really see it booming for another 5 to 10 years, if it ever does boom again. I can't see it not booming again though, so....

[ampulator]

I hate to say this, but I never watched Ricky Steamboat vs. Ric Flair as a kid or a teenager; however... I have watched it as an adult. And man, do their matches blow my mind. It was an awesome athletic contest everytime they met.

 

And that's not from tinted-rosy glasses of the past, because I never saw it as a kid. I had to say I was genuinely impressed.

[GatorBait19]

the only thing Vince really has on his side now is the fact his matches are pretty much a sure thing going to happen, to where UFC's could get nixed cuz of injuries

 

UFC is a far better product to spend your money on because you never know what's going to happen (i.e knockout, submission, boring match, great match)

[Daffanka]

One thing that I think WWE has over the UFC (well, the wrestling business has over the fight game really) is that if they can strike gold with a handfull of performers/storylines, they can go on a hot streak that revives their whole industry. It can last for years at a time and they can ride the momentum for years after that. Cases in point - Hulkamania in the 80's and Attitude in the 90's.

 

With the UFC, yes you have 'hot' performers like your Ortiz's (late 90's-early 2000's), Liddell and Couture (2003-2007), Lesnar (present)...but any of those guy's momentum can be irreparably damaged by just a couple of losses. The UFC can't make stars (Anderson Silva, best fighter in the world, can't sell PPV's) or guarentee entertaining bouts...there is a lot they can do to help the above along, but at the same time so much is left to chance.

 

The unscripted nature of MMA means that yes, sometimes very unfortunate things happen (see Daley at the last event or Machida getting the nod over Shogun) but it also means that when an underdog pulls through (Serra - GSP) or when two virtually no name fighters pull off a great fight (Griffin - Bonnar, Jung - Garcia) it becomes so much more involving because people know it's real. Pro wrestling can't provide that. Every time Cena pulls off the "upset" it's scripted. Every time a returning superstar dominates it's scripted.

 

And to be honest... I can't really see UFC losing steam anytime soon. The HW division is red hot right now (an incredible three legit challengers to the title!), Shogun's looking brilliant, Chael Sonnen could talk people into believing he's got a chance against Mayweather in a boxing match, GSP is a huge draw as always, and if Edgar defends his title again (he will! ) they've got a much needed shakeup in the LW division. Once they start bringing in the WEC guys it's gonna rule.

[brashleyholland]

The unscripted nature of MMA means that yes, sometimes very unfortunate things happen (see Daley at the last event or Machida getting the nod over Shogun) but it also means that when an underdog pulls through (Serra - GSP) or when two virtually no name fighters pull off a great fight (Griffin - Bonnar, Jung - Garcia) it becomes so much more involving because people know it's real. Pro wrestling can't provide that. Every time Cena pulls off the "upset" it's scripted. Every time a returning superstar dominates it's scripted.

 

...and that is the other side of the coin for the UFC. Just as a fighter's career can be tarnished beyond repair with a few losses, one or two great performances can make someone a star. Liddell's 1st win against Couture elevated him from 'MMA star' to a nationally-recognised hot-property. Matt Serra went from being an 'also ran', to the top of the Welterweight pile with just a few minutes of fighting. Forrest Griffin became one of the faces of MMA with one fight. WWE would kill for the ability to make stars that quickly.

 

And to be honest... I can't really see UFC losing steam anytime soon. The HW division is red hot right now (an incredible three legit challengers to the title!), Shogun's looking brilliant, Chael Sonnen could talk people into believing he's got a chance against Mayweather in a boxing match, GSP is a huge draw as always, and if Edgar defends his title again (he will! ) they've got a much needed shakeup in the LW division. Once they start bringing in the WEC guys it's gonna rule.

 

I don't think that they'll lose steam, but they've already hit 'critical mass' in the US in terms of PPV's and live gates. Obviously there will be the occasional big event that hits a million, and then there is the proposed football stadium event next year...but the sheer number of MMA PPV's is crazy at the moment. When you add in the fact that they are giving more stuff away for free, and that they still have a high standard as far as the level of talent they will use...something has to give.

 

Back in 2003, if you missed a UFC it was a big deal, because you'd have a two, three or sometimes four month wait for the next one. Now, you'd be unlucky to wait three weeks. PPV's are already taking a hit with fans being conditioned to avoid all but the biggest cards (as evidenced by some shockingly low numbers in the last 12 months)...coupled with the number of free events and those being put on by competitors, I think the UFC has just about reached it's peak in the US on PPV.

 

Internationally though, the world is their oyster...China is going to be a huge market for them. Another advantage over the WWE: They don't have to worry about breaking cultural entertainment boundaries, because fighting is a universal language.

[brashleyholland]

 

Chael Sonnen could talk people into believing he's got a chance against Mayweather in a boxing match

 

I don't there is anything that Sonnen couldn't talk people into. Mark my words, he'll be your president in 10 years.

[justtxyank]

Put me in the camp that has now completely moved on from pro-wrestling. My only interest at this point is mildly with TEW. I don't watch TNA, don't watch WWE, don't watch ROH and I don't even care to read the spoilers/results anymore. It's like the last gasp of interest was sucked out of me. I still enjoy talking about the old days on this board, but it's all over for me. I think Wrestlemania is what killed that spark. I hated the show and regretted spending my money on it after about 15 minutes.

 

I've moved firmly into the MMA camp. I watch almost every MMA event I can.

[CQI13]

I've moved entirely away from most of this stuff. I watch wrestling occasionally (some Wrestlemanias for example, and keep up with it online). I'll watch some MMA events (free TV mostly, since I detest going to crowded bars). But the same has happened with just about any sport for me. NBA isn't exciting until game 3 of the Finals, if even then. Baseball gives me a few good series a year. NHL is NHL. And the NFL is only relevant to me thanks to fantasy football. I think some of it may be my age, having outgrown this stuff. But also the fact that I haven't had cable in 5 years.

 

I will agree with what was said earlier, that fans are getting accustomed to skipping certain cards. But there was also much less competition before as far as TV goes.

[Tag01]

UFC is definitely not going away, and I think MMA will continue to hurt WWE in 18-35. But WWE struck gold with just a couple of guys in the 90's which led to a brief time when wrestling was even popular in the mainstream (who didn't like Stone Cold and The Rock?) One guy with that kind of draw could turn the entire industry around. The hard part is finding one. Wrestling is as bad as it's been for years, but I don't see the gloom and doom. Wrestling will always have its niche, WWE will stay profitable, Raw will stay on the air. Business will pick up eventually, it just may never reach the level we saw a few years ago.

 

I'll be too busy watching MMA to care, though.